Last week, you might have seen that Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media Corporation Limited (SHSE:601928) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.6% to CN¥10.15 in the past week. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥2.3b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at CN¥1.16 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media from four analysts is for revenues of CN¥14.7b in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 8.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 23% to CN¥0.77 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥14.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.94 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.
The consensus price target held steady at CN¥13.41, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media analyst has a price target of CN¥14.60 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥12.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 6.7% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.8% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 11% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥13.41, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
