销量带动下营收表现亮眼，单车亏损同环比减亏明显。公司2024Q3 营业收入60.77 亿元，同/环比分别+71.8%/+171.7%；归母净利润-19.20 亿元，扣非归母净利润-19.29 亿元，同/环比亏损均有所扩大。公司营收同环比提升主要原因在于公司销量恢复，2024Q3公司整体实现销量3.98 万辆，同/环比分别为+103.6%/+122.7%。Incidents:
On October 30, 2024, BAIC Blue Valley released its report for the third quarter of 2024: from January to September 2024, the company achieved operating income of 9.818 billion yuan, +5.5% year over year; realized net profit to mother was -4.491 billion yuan, increasing year-on-year loss; realized net profit without return to mother was -4.512 billion yuan, increasing year-on-year loss.
Investment highlights:
Driven by sales, revenue performance was impressive, and bicycle losses decreased significantly compared to the same period last year. The company's 2024Q3 revenue was 6.077 billion yuan, +71.8%/+171.7%, respectively; net profit to mother was -1.92 billion yuan, after deducting net profit not to mother of -1.929 billion yuan, and month-on-month losses increased. The main reason for the year-on-month increase in the company's revenue was the recovery in the company's sales volume. In 2024Q3, the company achieved an overall sales volume of 0.0398 million vehicles, or +103.6%/+122.7%, respectively.
Average bicycle revenue (ASP) was 0.1525 million yuan, or -0.028 million/+0.028 million yuan, month-on-month, respectively. The net profit of 2024Q3 bicycle deductions was -0.0484 million yuan, a year-on-month loss of 0.018 million/0.038 million yuan, respectively. On the cost side, the company's sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were 9.9%/5.0%/7.3%/1.6%, respectively, -6.5 pct/+0.02pct/+0.9pct/ -1.4pct year-on-year, and -16.4pct/-5.7pct/-8.0pct/-2.5pct, respectively, and the company's ability to control expenses was further improved.
The Jihu brand increased sales and shared delivery contributions, and the company's profit continued to improve. The company's sales volume of the core new energy brand Jihu increased significantly due to improved product matrices, quality advantages, and marketing upgrades. According to Marklines, the 2024Q3 Polar Fox achieved sales volume of 0.0289 million vehicles, +339.9%/+94.9% month-on-month respectively, and surpassed 10,000 vehicles in a single month in August and September 2024. In addition, the high-end brand created by the company and HUAWEI Hongmeng Zhixing began to contribute to performance. Delivery of the first product, the S9, was officially launched in August 2024. Polar Fox improved and combined benefits. 2024Q3's gross profit margin was -6.5%, and losses narrowed month-on-month.
Profit forecasting and investment rating The sales volume of the company's major brands has improved significantly. High-end brands can be expected to cooperate with Huawei. The company's ability to control fees continues to be optimized, and bicycle losses are gradually narrowing. We are optimistic about the company's future development potential. Based on the company's 2024Q3 performance, we adjusted profit forecasts. We expect the company to achieve operating income of 19.803, 46.314, 56.63 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 38%, 134%, 22%; achieved net profit to mother -6.271, -3.708, 0.952 In billion yuan, the year-on-year growth rate was loss increase, loss reduction, and loss reversal; EPS was -1.13, -0.67, and 0.17 yuan, and PS valuations corresponding to the current stock price were 2.3, 1.0, and 0.8 times, respectively. Maintain an “Overweight” rating.
Risks suggest that overall passenger car market development falls short of expectations; performance falls short of expectations due to increased market competition; new car sales fall short of expectations due to changes in the competitive landscape; sales fall short of expectations due to operational issues; uncertain risks caused by poor progress in cooperation with Huawei; and model sales fall short of expectations due to insufficient promotion of new brands.
