市内免税新政出台，口岸免税项目正在逐步推进，重点零售项目落地。《市内免税店管理暂行办法》已出台，公司正在根据政策要求和公司总体战略布局，持续推动相关工作。2024年9 月21 日，公司旗下贵阳国贸CCPARK 购物中心整体对外营业，项目总租赁面积4.6万平方米，租赁期限10 年。截至三季度末，公司在全国七大经济区域35 个城市共运营79 家大型综合零售门店，总建筑面积523.3 万平方米。第三季度，公司中标哈尔滨太平国际机场、牡丹江海浪国际机场出境免税项目，两个项目正在推进筹备工作，鉴于上述项目规模较小，预计对公司经营业绩不会产生重大影响。Key points of investment:
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report, and the results fell short of expectations. Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 8.499 billion yuan, -8.27% YoY, achieving net profit attributable to mother of 0.427 billion yuan, or -34.13% YoY; achieving net profit excluding non-attributable net profit of 0.359 billion yuan, or -39.12% YoY. Revenue for the third quarter was 2.464 billion yuan, -14.61% year over year, realized net profit of 0.134 billion yuan, +2.53% year over year, and realized net profit after deduction of 38.6423 million yuan, or -70.54% year on year. The main reasons for the decline in net profit were the decline in sales of department stores and specialty stores, as well as the increase in upfront preparation costs in South China.
The retail market continues to be structurally adjusted, new lifestyle categories continue to rise, and the duty-free business continues its high growth trend. In the first three quarters of 2024, sales of digital products increased by nearly 28% in the retail category, and consumption of sports products gradually became the company's largest sales category. In the service retail category, entertainment experience consumption grew relatively well, entertainment and leisure increased by more than 20%, and children's experiential sales increased by nearly 15%. Catering sales account for more than some traditional product categories, and restaurants popular among young people, such as baking, drinks, hot pot, and buffet, continue to perform well. In the first three quarters, the department store/shopping center/olai/specialty store/duty-free business achieved revenue of 32.42/22.54/1.65/1.078/0.204 billion yuan respectively, or -15.45/ -1.58/+4.37/ -4.97/ +68.62% year-on-year. The year-on-year increase in revenue in the South China region (including Hainan) is mainly due to the fact that new stores in the region are still in their infancy, and gross margin declined due to the fact that new stores needed to adopt a more flexible market strategy during the cultivation period and the cost of the preparation period increased compared to the same period after official operation.
With the introduction of a new tax exemption policy in the city, port duty-free projects are gradually progressing, and key retail projects are being implemented. The “Interim Measures on the Administration of Duty Free Shops in the City” have been introduced, and the company is continuing to promote related work in accordance with policy requirements and the company's overall strategic layout. On September 21, 2024, the entire Guiyang Guomao CCPARK shopping center under the company was opened to the public. The total leased area of the project was 0.046 million square meters, and the lease period was 10 years. By the end of the third quarter, the company operated 79 large-scale integrated retail stores in 35 cities in seven major economic regions across the country, with a total construction area of 5.233 million square meters. In the third quarter, the company won bids for the exit duty-free projects at Harbin Taiping International Airport and Mudanjiang Hailang International Airport. Preparations are underway for the two projects. Given the small scale of these projects, it is not expected to have a significant impact on the company's business performance.
Investment analysis: The company's key projects are progressing smoothly, offline passenger flow is gradually recovering, and the city's tax exemption policy is beneficial to the development of the company's duty-free business in the long run. Considering the short-term pressure on terminal consumption recovery, we lowered our profit forecast. The net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 0.531/0.752/0.867 billion yuan (previous value of 0.749/0.86/0.975 billion yuan), which mainly raised the cost rate level assumption for the period and lowered the shopping center floor efficiency assumption. The current stock price corresponds to 24-26 PE 32/23/20 times, respectively. We selected Tianhong Co., Ltd. and Quanjude as comparable companies. Based on the 25-year comparable company valuation, the company was given 25 years 27 times PE, corresponding to a 21% increase in market capitalization, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Market competition has intensified, consumption recovery falls short of expectations, and the development of duty-free business falls short of expectations.
