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无论谁入主白宫,黄金都将是赢家?

Will gold be the winner regardless of who takes office in the White House?

Golden10 Data ·  Nov 1 23:02

One key similarity between the two candidates makes investors see gold as a foolproof bet.

With one of the most competitive elections in modern US history sparkingIts price has soared to a historic high, closely related to market expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.a frenzy, the price of gold is surging, with many investors expecting further increases in the future.

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Hedge funds' net long position in gold is at a four-year high.

Gold prices have hit record highs this week, poised to achieve the best annual gain since 1979. Central banks and Chinese buyers initially led the charge, but as investors seek protection from market turbulence ahead of the US presidential election next week, the demand has expanded. Regardless of the outcome, the upward trend in gold could continue.

"In uncertain times, the market favors gold, especially in situations related to geopolitical issues," said Patrick Fruzzetti, portfolio manager at Rose Advisors. "That's why investors want to hold gold before the election."

Some observers believe that the gap between the two presidential candidates will be very small, to the point where it may need to be decided by the Supreme Court. Others question whether the results will turn out that way. In any case, the neck-and-neck poll results have led many to expect a suspenseful counting process.

Adding to the tension, Trump and his allies have told supporters that they are about to achieve a great victory. If the elections do not go their way, this could lay the foundation for a prolonged legal challenge, further disrupting the markets.

Some investors are heavily betting on Trump's victory and a Republican sweep of both houses. Trades related to his trade protectionism and growth agenda have boosted the dollar, which usually makes gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies, thus weakening gold's appeal. In fact, back in 2016 when Trump was first elected as the US President, gold prices plummeted.

However, this time around, concerns about the intensity of the election are much greater, and if the results are close, investors may unwind their bets on the dollar and stock market, flocking to safe-haven assets.

Marathon Resource Advisors Portfolio Manager Robert Mullin pointed out that if "time is needed to determine the winner," gold prices will rise.

Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh said in a report that a Harris victory could lead to initial selling, but this decline would be short-lived. He anticipates that a Harris win causing a decline in the dollar may boost the purchasing power of countries like China and India, and the prospect of slowing economic growth may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates faster, thereby boosting gold prices.

In addition to the election results themselves, a key similarity between the two candidates has also led to bullish bets on gold for long-term gains. Both contenders have grand spending plans that seem likely to further strain America's public finances.

Calvin Yeoh, manager of the Merlion Fund at Singapore's Blue Edge Advisors, said, "No matter who wins, fiscal spending will continue, which the market is content with. For this reason, gold is the ark that everyone in the world wants to board right now."

Concerns about the consequences of expenditure plans are evident in the US bond market, as the expected increase in debt levels has led to a rise in US Treasury yields. This trend typically makes US Treasury bonds more attractive than interest-free assets like gold. However, bond investors betting on this fiscal extravagance can also accelerate inflation, erode returns, and shift the balance back in favor of gold.

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Gold is indifferent to the soaring US bond yields.

There are multiple driving factors behind the historic surge in gold prices this year. Some investors suggest that Trump's resounding victory may strengthen these drivers, thereby accelerating the rebound. But regardless of who ultimately takes over the White House, many believe that gold will not lose out.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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