Readers hoping to buy Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (NYSE:HCC) for its dividend will need to make their move shortly, as the stock is about to trade ex-dividend. The ex-dividend date is one business day before a company's record date, which is the date on which the company determines which shareholders are entitled to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is important as the process of settlement involves two full business days. So if you miss that date, you would not show up on the company's books on the record date. This means that investors who purchase Warrior Met Coal's shares on or after the 5th of November will not receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 12th of November.
The company's upcoming dividend is US$0.08 a share, following on from the last 12 months, when the company distributed a total of US$0.82 per share to shareholders. Looking at the last 12 months of distributions, Warrior Met Coal has a trailing yield of approximately 1.3% on its current stock price of US$63.13. If you buy this business for its dividend, you should have an idea of whether Warrior Met Coal's dividend is reliable and sustainable. So we need to check whether the dividend payments are covered, and if earnings are growing.
Dividends are typically paid from company earnings. If a company pays more in dividends than it earned in profit, then the dividend could be unsustainable. Warrior Met Coal has a low and conservative payout ratio of just 11% of its income after tax. That said, even highly profitable companies sometimes might not generate enough cash to pay the dividend, which is why we should always check if the dividend is covered by cash flow. Over the past year it paid out 178% of its free cash flow as dividends, which is uncomfortably high. We're curious about why the company paid out more cash than it generated last year, since this can be one of the early signs that a dividend may be unsustainable.
Warrior Met Coal does have a large net cash position on the balance sheet, which could fund large dividends for a time, if the company so chose. Still, smart investors know that it is better to assess dividends relative to the cash and profit generated by the business. Paying dividends out of cash on the balance sheet is not long-term sustainable.
While Warrior Met Coal's dividends were covered by the company's reported profits, cash is somewhat more important, so it's not great to see that the company didn't generate enough cash to pay its dividend. Were this to happen repeatedly, this would be a risk to Warrior Met Coal's ability to maintain its dividend.
Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.
Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?
Businesses with shrinking earnings are tricky from a dividend perspective. If business enters a downturn and the dividend is cut, the company could see its value fall precipitously. Warrior Met Coal's earnings per share have fallen at approximately 11% a year over the previous five years. When earnings per share fall, the maximum amount of dividends that can be paid also falls.
Another key way to measure a company's dividend prospects is by measuring its historical rate of dividend growth. Warrior Met Coal has delivered an average of 22% per year annual increase in its dividend, based on the past seven years of dividend payments.
The Bottom Line
From a dividend perspective, should investors buy or avoid Warrior Met Coal? It's disappointing to see earnings per share declining, and this would ordinarily be enough to discourage us from most dividend stocks, even though Warrior Met Coal is paying out less than half its income as dividends. However, it's also paying out an uncomfortably high percentage of its cash flow, which makes us wonder just how sustainable the dividend really is. Overall it doesn't look like the most suitable dividend stock for a long-term buy and hold investor.
With that being said, if you're still considering Warrior Met Coal as an investment, you'll find it beneficial to know what risks this stock is facing. Our analysis shows 2 warning signs for Warrior Met Coal and you should be aware of these before buying any shares.
A common investing mistake is buying the first interesting stock you see. Here you can find a full list of high-yield dividend stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
