According to the information from the Sina Finance app, global investors closely watched the U.S. non-farm employment data, which increased by only 0.012 million people, far below the general expectations of economists. In October, the non-farm employment in the United States grew at the slowest pace since 2020, while the unemployment rate remained relatively low historically during the month. The sharp drop in non-farm employment was mainly due to severe hurricanes and major strike activities. Therefore, after the non-farm data was released, the global asset management giant BlackRock stated that this non-farm report contains many noise factors, including data revisions and impacts of hurricanes and strikes. It is expected that this data will not affect the recent decisions of the Federal Reserve.

The latest non-farm employment data shows that the non-farm employment in the United States only increased by 0.012 million people last month, and the non-farm employment data for the previous two months were revised downward. According to the latest data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, consistent with economists' expectations, while hourly earnings remain stable.

It is worth noting that although economists' general expectations for the U.S. non-farm employment in October ranged from 0.1 million to -0.11 million people, the expectations of economists from different institutions were quite diverse. Non-farm employment data is crucial for the strongest engine of U.S. economic growth - consumer spending. If consumer spending, which represents 80%-90% of the U.S. GDP, is the driving force for the continuous advancement of the U.S. economy, then non-farm employment data is the core fuel for this giant ship, providing powerful consumption power for American consumers.

According to Bloomberg's statistics of financial institutions, Mizuho and Paragon currently have the highest forecast values for the October non-farm data - both at 0.18 million people. On the other end, Bloomberg's economist team has an astonishing -0.01 million people for tonight's non-farm data forecast (predicting a negative growth). Among the Wall Street financial giants, Goldman Sachs (expected at around 0.09 million people) and JPMorgan (expected at around 0.1 million people) are relatively close to the median estimated by economists.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics stated on Friday that hurricanes may have significantly affected the recruitment scale in some industries, but it is unable to quantify the net negative impact of hurricanes on monthly changes in total employment, hours, or income predictions. The government agency pointed out that the data collection rate for these statistical surveys is "far below average." The Labor Statistics Bureau also stated that this has not had a significant impact on the national unemployment rate.

Economists have warned that the impact of Boeing employees' large-scale strikes and two extremely powerful hurricanes, Helen and Milton, hitting the U.S. Southeast at the end of September and early October will be more severe on non-farm employment numbers than on the unemployment rate survey. Therefore, economists' estimates for the October non-farm employment numbers vary greatly, ranging from a decrease of 10,000 people to an increase of 180,000 people.

Despite the continued resilience of the U.S. economy and the unemployment rate remaining near historic lows, persistent high prices have led many Americans to hold a generally pessimistic view of the U.S. economy for most of President Biden's term. The overall inflation rate in the United States has fallen significantly from its mid-2022 peak, but prices for most goods and services continue to rise significantly, forcing many consumers to use savings and credit cards to maintain a balance between income and expenses.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that the latest average hourly wage has increased by 4% compared to the same period last year, a figure significantly lower than the nearly 6% at the beginning of 2022. Wage growth for the majority of workers in production and non-supervisory roles has slightly rebounded, reaching 4.1%.

Due to a continuous increase in available labor force leading to declining demand for new employees, the overall income growth rate in the USA has significantly slowed down, which is a core factor driving the slowdown of inflation in the USA. As a result, many employers have started reducing incentive measures to attract talent. Other data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics this week showed a significant slowdown in employment cost growth in the third quarter, with the number of job vacancies in the U.S. hitting the lowest level in over three years in September.

The Federal Reserve may consider this non-farm payroll report as 'noise.'

This non-farm employment report is the last key data point for the U.S. economy before the Federal Reserve meeting next week and the U.S. presidential election on November 5th. Employment issues have always been the most concerning topic for voters in the U.S. presidential election. Other data this week showed that the U.S. GDP in the third quarter grew very strongly driven by robust consumer spending, while the inflation rate in September showed some signs of rising.

After receiving many warnings about non-farm employment numbers linked to hurricanes, economists and policymakers at the Federal Reserve may extract little signal from this non-farm report, especially with some like Federal Reserve Chair Powell possibly viewing the October non-farm report as 'noise,' while actively searching for other actual data indicating a possible gradual cooling of the labor market.

Goldman Sachs commented after the non-farm payroll data was released, stating that this overly weak non-farm report indicates that the Fed will continue its easing cycle next week. Goldman Sachs mentioned that Boeing employee strike actions and hurricane impacts affected the October non-farm employment data, leading to unexpectedly declining job growth while the unemployment rate remained unchanged. Goldman Sachs suggested that the Fed may attribute the weakness in today's data to one-time special factors.

Asset management giant BlackRock stated after the non-farm payroll data was released that there are many noise factors in this non-farm report data, including data revisions, hurricane, strike impacts, etc. Therefore, the institution expects that this data will not affect any recent monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. It is worth noting that Federal Reserve officials have entered a 'quiet period' and are unable to make any comments before the announcement of the November interest rate decision, thus cannot obtain their latest views on the non-farm data.

Following the announcement of non-farm employment hitting a new low in 4 years, expectations for a Fed rate cut have risen.

Far exceeding expectations, after the release of the 'mini non-farm' data - namely the ADP employment data and the Federal Reserve's most favored inflation indicator - core PCE data, interest rate futures traders are still widely betting on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. However, there is already a portion of traders shifting their bets to the Federal Reserve announcing a 'pause in rate cuts' in December, and even fewer traders are betting that the Federal Reserve may announce a pause in the rate cut process in November.

After the release of the October non-farm employment data, the latest CME 'FedWatch Tool' shows that the interest rate futures market continues to bet on a 25 basis point rate cut in November, with a probability as high as 98%. Traders betting on the Federal Reserve maintaining the benchmark interest rate unchanged in December have decreased, and the probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting rates in December has dropped from close to 40% to less than 20%. Previously, on Thursday night, the CME 'FedWatch Tool' had shown that following far better-than-expected ADP employment data and an accelerated quarter-on-quarter increase in core PCE, the probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting rates in December had surged from 0 before the ADP data release to over 30%, with the probability once coming close to 40%.

After the report was released, the yields on US treasuries across all maturities declined, and the three major US equity index futures collectively rose due to the warming expectations of a rate cut.

"In October, US non-farm employment data was weak, not only due to hurricanes, but we also see signs of economic slowdown in some regions of the US. We believe that this employment data will lead the Federal Reserve to announce 25 basis point rate cuts in November and December, with gradual rate cuts being the theme for the foreseeable future." Bloomberg Economics economists like Anna Wong expressed.

The impact of hurricanes cannot be ignored.

This latest non-farm employment data shows a significant and unexpected increase in recruitment numbers for the US healthcare and government sectors, while employment numbers in other industries have remained stable or declined. Retail trade, transportation and warehousing, leisure, and hotel industries have experienced significant declines due mainly to hurricanes and slow post-disaster recovery disrupting recruitment activities. Manufacturing employment decreased by 0.046 million people, the largest drop since April 2020, mainly reflecting the negative effects of several large strikes, including 0.033 million Boeing employees.

Hurricane Helen made landfall on September 26, while Milton struck on October 9, coinciding with the reference period for the October non-farm data statistics. The non-farm employment report consists of two surveys, with non-farm employment figures coming from a survey of businesses. If employees miss the entire pay period, including the 12th of each month, they will not be considered 'employed' - even if they technically still have a job, just missed the work statistics period due to rare severe weather."Major strikes and other disasters slow down recovery activities.

The household survey used to calculate the unemployment rate does not exclude these people. Surprisingly, this measure paints a gloomier employment picture, dropping for the first time since May to show the effects of weather conditions on work. The number of people unable to work due to weather reasons jumped to 0.512 million, the highest level since January."

The unemployment rate continues to remain stable, but the increase in the number of unemployed individuals marks the largest increase since February, while the number of resignations decreases. The participation rate, which is the proportion of the population working or seeking work, also comes from household surveys, and has slightly declined. The labor participation rate of workers aged 25-54 (also known as prime-age workers) unexpectedly dropped to 83.5%, the lowest level since April.