At this point, two large Wall Street banks have already indicated that Trump's victory is a signal to sell US stocks.
Bank of America's Chief Global Strategist Michael Hartnett stated that if former President Trump's reelection triggers a stock market rebound, investors should consider selling US stocks. This is consistent with Citigroup's earlier views this week.
Hartnett wrote in a report that Trump's return to the White House with a Republican majority in the Senate and House could lead to tax cuts and immigration restrictions. He said this would drive inflation and rate hikes, putting stocks in a headwind.
The views of two major Wall Street banks conflict with the consensus view that Trump's victory would boost the US stock market. It's widely expected that Trump's proposed company tax cuts would benefit corporate profits. With the gambling market tending to support Trump's victory, the s&p 500 index has been rising in recent weeks.
However, many major polls still show a tight race between Republican candidate Trump and Democratic candidate Harris.
Hartnett refers to his views as a 'reverse challenge' and also suggests buying on dips after Harris wins, as this would sustain the current uptrend in technology stocks. Technology stocks have been a key driver of the US stock market surge this year.
The strategist stated that this situation 'is best achieved through Chinese technology stocks'. Technology stocks have been a key driver of the US stock market surge this year, but slid after reporting quarterly earnings below expectations this week.
Citigroup strategist Scott Chronert stated in a report earlier this week that a victory by Harris and any sell-off caused by a divided Congress would be a buying opportunity.
Other reverse forecasts by Hartnett include: buying bonds instead of gold if government spending is controlled; buying European stocks if tariffs force the European Central Bank to cut rates faster than expected.