投资建议：考 虑到24Q3交付加速以及明暗场、OCD等将于25、26年陆续贡献收入，上调24-26 年营收为13.50/20.12/30.04 亿元（前值13.01/19.34/28.45 亿元）。考虑到公司为实现关键产品卡位，近几年各项投入将保持高位，下调24-26 年EPS 为0.31/0.83/2.05 元（前值0.47/1.28/2.08 元）。参考可比公司PS 及考虑到公司所处量检测环节国产化率低以及未来收入增速更快，给予公司25 年15 倍PS，上调目标价为94.32 元（前值81.31 元），维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
The performance was in line with expectations, and Q3 delivery was accelerated; with high R&D support, the company's new product layout progressed steadily; testing equipment for key electron beam dimensions was under development to complete the electron beam circuit.
Key points of investment:
Investment proposal: Considering the acceleration of 24Q3 delivery and that bright and dark fields, OCD, etc. will continue to contribute revenue in the 25th and 26th years, increase 24-26 revenue to 1.35/2.012/3.004 billion yuan (previous value 1.301/1.934/2.845 billion yuan). Considering the company's key product card position, various investments will remain high in recent years, reducing the 24-26 EPS to 0.31/0.83/2.05 yuan (previous value 0.47/1.28/2.08 yuan). Referring to the company's PS and considering the company's low localization rate in the testing process and the faster future revenue growth rate, the company was given 15 times PS in 25 years, and the target price was raised to 94.32 yuan (previous value: 81.31 yuan) to maintain the shareholding increase rating.
Results were in line with expectations, and Q3 delivery accelerated. 24Q1-Q3's revenue was 0.812 billion yuan/ +38.21%, and net profit attributable to mother and net profit after deduction was -0.052/-0.125 billion yuan respectively (0.079/0.019 billion yuan in the same period last year). The poor profit was mainly due to the company increasing R&D investment for new card position products in '24. 24Q1-Q3 spent 0.335 billion yuan/year on year +131.8%, accounting for 41.25% of revenue. Single 24Q3 revenue 0.349 billion/ +56.79%, net profit attributable to mother 0.016 billion yuan.
The 24Q3 gross profit margin was 49.64% /year over year +2.06pct/month-on-month +11.77pct, mainly driven by the return to normal delivery of high-profit products. Contract debt/inventory at the end of 24Q3 was 0.698/1.555 billion yuan respectively, increasing quarterly over the past 24 years, up 58.63%/39.84% from the end of 23, respectively, with strong momentum for subsequent growth.
Relying on high R&D support, the company's new product layout is progressing steadily. 1) Mass-produced products: ① Non-graphic wafer defect detection: The market share of mass-produced models continues to increase, and more advanced processes are being iterated smoothly.
② Graphic wafer defect detection and three-dimensional morphology measurement: increase the layout of advanced packaging fields such as HBM and 2.5/3D, and steadily advance the development of advanced model products. ③ Film thickness measurement: Both metals and media are steadily advancing the development of advanced models. ④ Overlay accuracy measurement: Mass production has been achieved and advanced model research and development has been promoted. 2) Products under inspection: ① Bright field: small batch shipment, production line verification for multiple domestic customers; ② Dark field and OCD: Shipped to some customer production line verification.
Testing equipment for key electron beam dimensions is under development to complete the electron beam track. Electron beam critical size inspection accounts for 8.1% of the value of inspection equipment. By completing the electron beam product line, the company will achieve full coverage of the two mainstream tracks of quantitative detection optics and electron beam, fully opening up room for growth.
Risk warning: semiconductor industry cycle fluctuations, domestic substitution falls short of expectations, product delivery falls short of expectations, and new product verification falls short of expectations.
