At 20:30 Beijing time, the USA released non-farm data for October, with seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll adding 0.012 million people, far below the expected 0.113 million, and the previous value revised from 0.254 million to 0.223 million. The USA's October unemployment rate was recorded at 4.1%, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous value.

The USA's October average hourly wage monthly rate recorded 0.4%, lower than the expected 0.3%, with the previous value revised from 0.4% to 0.3%. The USA's October average hourly wage annual rate recorded 4%, in line with expectations, with the previous value revised from 4% to 3.9%.

After the data was released, the US dollar index fell more than 30 points in the short term, while spot gold surged $9 in the short term. Non-US currencies generally rose, with the euro against the US dollar up more than 30 points in the short term, the British pound against the US dollar up more than 40 points in the short term, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen by nearly 80 points.

Interest rate futures indicate an increased expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, with the possibility of further rate cuts in December and 2025.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that the number of unemployed individuals in October was 7 million. These indicators are higher than a year ago when the unemployment rate was 3.8%, and the number of unemployed individuals was 6.4 million. Breaking it down:

Among the major workforce groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.9%), adult women (3.6%), teenagers (13.8%), White individuals (3.8%), Black individuals (5.7%), Asian individuals (3.9%), and Hispanic individuals (5.1%) saw little to no change within one month.

Government employment continued to trend upward (increasing by 0.04 million), similar to the previous average monthly increase of 0.043 million over the past 12 months. This month, state government employment also continued to rise (increasing by 0.018 million).

The medical industry added 0.052 million new employment positions, consistent with the average monthly addition of 0.058 million jobs over the previous 12 months.

The employment data released on Friday was collected within a week when Hurricane 'Milton' made landfall in Florida, shortly before Hurricane 'Helene' hit the southeastern United States. The ongoing strike at Boeing led to 0.033 million employees ceasing work, also affecting this figure.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that hurricanes may have an impact on the employment data for certain industries in October. Analyst Casselman stated, 'It's worth noting that in many industries we expected to be affected by storms and strikes, hiring was very weak. Manufacturing employment decreased by 0.046 million, likely due to the strike by Boeing employees. Employment in retail, leisure, and hospitality industries declined, as these sectors are vulnerable to hurricane damage.'

Casselman added that given the weak employment data, it is unlikely to attract much attention, but there is an annoying message at the bottom of today's report: the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that it has suspended plans to reduce the size of the monthly household survey. Many economists have been concerned that these plans could reduce the reliability of monthly data, and they urge the Labor Department to reconsider.

The political significance of these numbers may be greater than their economic significance. Most economists seem to have set aside the data, but clearly it provides simple political material.

Analyst Curran stated that these are clearly a set of confusing numbers, as expected by everyone. Economists need several months of clear data to accurately assess the job market. Politically, Trump's campaign team may seize the opportunity of the overall decline in employment numbers, while Harris's campaign team can point out the stable unemployment rate.

After US bonds suffered their largest loss in two years in October, investors used the overall low employment data as an excuse to buy US bonds.

Mohamed El-Erian, the Dean of Queen's College, Cambridge University, explained the bond market's reaction: "The bond market response is related to two things. This number is even weaker than the widely believed data. The market's risk balance is upside. What you are seeing is a repositioning, people are making some hedges because what really drives the market is stronger data, not weaker data."

Editor/Rocky