维持“增持” 评级。2024年前三季度公司营收2428.56 亿元，同比降4.77%；归母净利润58.82 亿元，同比降29.56%；2024Q3 归母净利润13.38 亿元，环比降48.92%、同比降64.78%，业绩略低于预期。考虑行业需求整体仍较弱，下调2024-2026 年归母净利润预测至90.96/102.86/121.47 亿元（原120.86/128.37/137.34 亿元），对应EPS 为0.41/0.47/0.55 元。但参考可比公司，给予公司2025 年0.80倍PB 进行估值，上调目标价至7.97 元（原7.06 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's net profit per ton of steel remained at the leading level in the industry. The company continues to optimize its product structure and increase the proportion of high value-added products, which is conducive to continuously improving its own profitability.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 242.856 billion yuan, down 4.77% year on year; net profit to mother was 5.882 billion yuan, down 29.56% year on year; 2024Q3 net profit to mother was 1.338 billion yuan, down 48.92% month-on-month and 64.78% year on year. The performance was slightly lower than expected. Considering that overall industry demand is still weak, the 2024-2026 net profit forecast was lowered to 9.096/10.286/12.147 billion yuan (originally 12.086/12.837/13.734 billion yuan), corresponding EPS to 0.41/0.47/0.55 yuan. However, with reference to comparable companies, the company was valued at 0.80 times PB in 2025, and the target price was raised to 7.97 yuan (originally 7.06 yuan), maintaining the “gain” rating.
Profitability remains industry-leading. The year-on-year decline in steel prices in the first three quarters of 2024 was greater than the year-on-year decline in raw material prices, and the steel industry's profit margins were further squeezed; according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, 2
From January to September 2014, the total profit loss of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 34.1 billion yuan. The profit per ton of steel was about -32.65 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 54.80 yuan/ton. However, the company's net profit per ton of steel in the first three quarters of 2024 was 152.78 yuan/ton. Although the year-on-year decrease was 28.70%, the average profit per ton of steel in the industry was 185.43 yuan/ton. As a leading steel company, the company has advantages such as product structure and cost management, and its profitability remains at the leading level of the industry.
Continuously optimize the product structure. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's total steel sales volume was 38.5 million tons, down 1.21% year on year; however, its “1+1+N” product sales volume was 22.54 million tons, up 2.23 million tons year on year, of which sales of oriented silicon steel increased 27.5% year on year; in addition, the company vigorously developed overseas markets, with export contracts of 4.66 million tons in the first three quarters, a record high. The company continues to optimize its product structure and increase the proportion of high value-added products, which is conducive to continuously improving its own profitability.
The repurchase of shares is used for equity incentives, which helps the company establish a sound long-term incentive mechanism. On October 16, 2023, the company announced that it plans to use 3 billion yuan of its own funds to repurchase the company's A shares; as of October 15, 2024, the company has completed the repurchase. The actual repurchase of about 0.405 billion shares, accounting for about 1.84% of its total share capital. The average repurchase price is 6.16 yuan/share, and the total capital used is about 2.492 billion yuan (excluding transaction fees). The company's share repurchase will be used to continuously implement equity incentive plans in the future, which will help improve the company's long-term incentive mechanism and demonstrate the company's confidence in its long-term development.
Risk warning: Demand for sheets has dropped sharply, and the price of raw materials has risen sharply.
