①Tesla, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon are all showing a common trend - pouring money into AI, then pouring more money. ②"Every year Microsoft over-invests, it will drag down the profit margin for the next six years by a full percentage point," said Gil Luria, head of technology research at Davidson Trust. ③Investments in AI need to see returns, see widespread technological applications, and need time.
From last week's $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ and $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ parent company Alphabet, to this week's $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Meta Platforms (META.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Apple (AAPL.US)$ and $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ , Six out of the seven giants in the US stock market have already released their latest financial reports.
Regardless of whether the performance data is impressive or not, the six giants have basically revealed a common trend during this earnings season - investing heavily in AI.
Microsoft's Q3 capital expenditures, including financing leases, were $20 billion, nearly 80% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter. The overall capital expenditures are mainly directed towards AI and the cloud, with half going to long-term assets and the other half to servers (including CPUs and GPUs); and capital expenditures are expected to increase sequentially.
Google's capital expenditure was $13.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62%, with spending expected to remain at this level in Q4, implying that Google's total capital expenditure for the year may increase by nearly 60% compared to last year. CFO Anat Ashkenazi stated that capital expenditure will further increase in 2025.
Apple stated that it will continue to advance all necessary investments in the 2025 fiscal year and continue capital expenditure on AI-related projects.
Tesla raised its annual capital expenditure to $11 billion in the Q3 financial report. Musk also stated that there will be full effort in advancing AI to train intelligent driving.
Meta explicitly stated that capital expenditure next year will 'accelerate significantly.' Zuckerberg bluntly said, 'Building (AI) infrastructure may not be what investors want to see in the short term, but I believe there is a great opportunity here, and we will continue to invest a significant amount of money.'
Amazon plans to total $75 billion in capital expenditure this year, even higher next year. CEO Andy Jassy stated that this is for investing in AI, 'It is a great opportunity, perhaps a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. I believe that customers and shareholders will be satisfied with our actively pursued long-term goals.'
Unfortunately, shareholders and the market do not seem satisfied.
US stock investors have already voted with their feet. On November 1st, local time, large US technology stocks plummeted across the board, with Microsoft falling over 6%, Meta over 4%, Amazon and Tesla over 3%, Apple and Google nearly 2%.
Looking up at the stars while keeping your feet on the ground.
These technology giants have been investing heavily in asia vets for a long time. What they see in their eyes is the "starry sky above their heads", and what they talk about is the "poetry and the distance." However, what the market really wants is a "down-to-earth", practical return that can be seen.
Bank of Montreal Family Office Chief Investment Officer Carol Schleif pointed out, "Three of the seven giants have stated that there is basically no limit to their AI spending budget, which investors do not like to hear. The medium to long-term impact of this development is extremely important for the long-term growth and productivity of the USA, but in the short term, investors will ask: where are the profits?"
"The cost of operating asia vets technology is high, and the cost of acquiring capacity is also high," said GlobalData analyst Beatriz Valle, "This has become a wrestle among large technology companies. To see returns, to see the widespread application of technology, more time is needed."
Both Microsoft and Meta have stated that capital expenditures are increasing due to AI investments, which may reduce profitability.
How much does the large investment in AI affect the performance of technology giants? Perhaps it is more intuitive to see through specific numbers.
Nowadays, Microsoft's quarterly spending has even exceeded its capital expenditures for the entire fiscal year before the 2020 fiscal year; Meta's quarterly capital expenditures are almost equivalent to the level of an entire year before 2017.
"Every year that Microsoft over-invests - such as this year, it will drag down the profit margin for the next six years by a whole percentage point." Davidsons Trust Technology Research Director Gil Luria pointed out.
Nvidia, the biggest winner
Among the seven giants, six have invested heavily in AI, and the biggest winner is undoubtedly the remaining NVIDIA.
Recently, the well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo stated that based on the industry chain order information of NVIDIA's Blackwell GB200 chip, Microsoft is currently the largest GB200 customer in the world. In the fourth quarter of this year, the order volume surged by 3-4 times, exceeding the total order volume of all other cloud computing service providers.
It is expected that the production capacity expansion of the Blackwell chip will start in the early fourth quarter of 2024. The estimated shipment volume in the fourth quarter is expected to be between 0.15 million-0.2 million units, and the shipment volume is expected to grow significantly by 200%-250% in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 0.5 million-0.55 million units.
Looking at the stock performance, NVIDIA's stock price increase in the past year has significantly outperformed the other six giants.
This AI 'shovel seller' will officially disclose its financial report in over half a month, so let us wait and see.
Editor/Rocky