Core views

In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 22.375 billion yuan, an increase of 1.80% year on year; net profit to mother was 1.464 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.85% year on year. Looking at the third quarter of a single quarter, the company's net profit to mother was 0.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55.10%, mainly due to the decline in the company's coal sales price. In the third quarter of a single quarter, the gross profit contribution of the company's coal business was 1.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.81%; the gross profit contribution of the power business was 0.739 billion yuan.

In the first three quarters, the company's electricity and coal business achieved gross profit of 21.00 billion yuan and 3.640 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +79.86% and -22.89%. In terms of electricity business, in the first three quarters of 2024, feed-in electricity was 29.853 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 11.35% over the previous year; among them, the company's average feed-in tariffs in Jiangsu and Henan regions were 0.4795 and 0.4507 yuan/kilowatt-hour, respectively (tax included). In terms of energy storage business, the company's first MW grade energy storage power plant was officially put into operation in September 2024. Overall, the company's coal and electricity operations complement each other, and the development of the Haizetan coal mine construction and energy storage business continues to advance, and there is plenty of room for long-term growth in business performance.

occurrences

Yongtai Energy Releases Report for the Third Quarter of 2024

In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 22.375 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.80%; net profit to mother of 1.464 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.85%; net profit after deducting 1.396 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.67%; achieved a weighted return on net assets of 3. 12%, a decrease of 0.50 percentage points; and achieved basic earnings per share of 0.07 yuan/share, a year-on-year decrease of 9.71%. In the third quarter of a single quarter, the company achieved net profit of 0.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55.10%.

Brief review

The decline in coal prices dragged down profit to mother. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 22.375 billion yuan, an increase of 1.80% over the previous year; net profit to mother was 1.464 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.85% year on year. Looking at the third quarter of a single quarter, the company's net profit to mother was 0.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55.10%, mainly due to the decline in the company's coal sales price. In the third quarter of a single quarter, the gross profit contribution of the company's coal business was 1.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.81%; the gross profit contribution of the power business was 0.739 billion yuan.

In the first three quarters, the company's electricity and coal business achieved operating income of 139.06 billion yuan and 71.1.6 billion yuan, respectively, with a change of +11.24% and -14.77%; gross profit of 21.00 billion yuan and 3.640 billion yuan was achieved, with year-on-year changes of +79.86% and -22.89%. The year-on-year increase in the company's gross profit in the electricity business was mainly due to improvements in fuel costs combined with an increase in grid electricity capacity. In terms of the cost ratio for the period, the sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, R&D expense ratio, and financial expense ratio of the 2024Q3 company were 0.38%, 4.33%, 0.30%, and 6.48%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.12, -0.36, -0.10, and -1.11 percentage points. In the first three quarters, the company's financial expenses were 1.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.10%.

The amount of feed-in electricity increased year-on-year, and the construction of Haizetan continued to advance.

In terms of electricity business, in the first three quarters of 2024, feed-in electricity was 29.853 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 11.35% over the previous year; among them, the company's average feed-in tariffs in Jiangsu and Henan regions were 0.4795 and 0.4507 yuan/kilowatt-hour, respectively (tax included). Looking at the third quarter of a single quarter, the company achieved 11.496 billion kilowatt-hours of feed-in electricity, an increase of 8.00% over the previous year. In terms of coal business, in the first three quarters, the company's sales volume of raw coal and refined coal was 992.81 and 2.1903 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +3.48% and -10.24%. Currently, the company is actively promoting the construction of the Haizetan coal mine. According to the company's plan, it is expected that the Haizetan coal mine will complete four short circuits by the end of 2024 to form an underground drainage, power supply and ventilation system; enter the third phase of the construction phase by the end of 2025; the first mining work surface will be put into operation in June 2026, which is expected to produce 3 million tons of coal in the same year; it is expected to produce 10 million tons of coal in the first quarter of 2027.

The energy storage demonstration project was completed and put into operation, maintaining a “buy” rating

In terms of energy storage business, the company's first independent EPC general contracted Nanshan optical storage integrated energy storage power plant was officially put into operation in September 2024. The project built 2.7 MWp distributed photovoltaics and a 1.5 mW/6 MWh all-vanadium liquid flow energy storage power plant, with an energy storage time of 4 hours. In terms of production line construction, the company relies on vanadium resource advantages and scientific research and innovation to continuously optimize the vanadium pentoxide metallurgical selection production line. In terms of the acquisition of Tianyue Coal, the company has successively completed the acquisition of part of Tianyue Coal's shares, and the asset acquisition continues to advance. Overall, the company's coal and electricity operations complement each other, and the development of the Haizetan coal mine construction and energy storage business continues to advance, and there is plenty of room for long-term growth in business performance. Regardless of factors such as asset acquisitions, we expect the company's net profit to be 2.325 billion yuan, 2.496 billion yuan, and 2.921 billion yuan respectively from 2024 to 2026, corresponding to EPS of 0.1 yuan/share, 0.11 yuan/share, and 0.13 yuan/share, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk analysis

The price of coking coal continues to fall: Coking coal products are the company's main source of revenue. Currently, the price of coking coal has dropped significantly from a high point. If the price of coking coal continues to drop sharply, the company's coal sector earnings will decline, and the company's performance in the second half of the year may fall short of expectations.

The price of thermal coal has rebounded sharply: Currently, the price of thermal coal has dropped significantly, and the company's electricity business has turned a loss into a profit. If thermal coal prices rise sharply and the company's electricity business returns to a state of loss, the company's performance in the second half of the year may fall short of expectations.

Demand for energy storage falls short of expectations: The company is currently deeply involved in the energy storage industry and is working on all-vanadium liquid flow batteries in many ways. If there are major changes in the future energy storage technology route or the increase in energy storage demand falls short of expectations, the company's future performance growth will fall short of expectations.