2024Q1-Q3 公司毛利率约19.0%，同比-4.4pct；2024Q3 公司毛利率约为7.7%，环比-14.9pct。当前，公司拥有24 条优质浮法玻璃生产线（16600 吨/日）、9 条光伏玻璃生产线（10600 吨/日），在建2 条光伏玻璃生产线（2,400 吨/日）。浮法玻璃产能规模位居行业第二位，光伏玻璃、节能玻璃产能规模位居行业第三位。此外，公司多元化业务稳步发展。当前，公司拥有4 条高性能电子玻璃生产线（345吨/日）、2 条中性硼硅药用玻璃生产线（65 吨/日）、11 条镀膜节能玻璃生产线（年产能5280 万平方米）、33 条中空玻璃生产线（年产能910 万平方米），在建2 条光伏玻璃生产线（2,400 吨/日）。Industry trends are dragging down performance. Baojiao Building boosts glass prices and maintains a “buy” rating
The company released its three-quarter report for 2024. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 11.6 billion yuan, +3.72%; realized net profit due to mother of 0.699 billion yuan, or -43.77% year on year; realized net profit of 0.623 billion yuan without return to mother, -45.21%; in a single Q3, achieved operating income of 3.689 billion yuan, -9.03% month-on-month, and realized net profit to mother -0.112 billion yuan, -130.35% month-on-month Achieved net profit of -0.137 billion yuan after deduction, or -139.78% month-on-month. Considering that the company's float glass price is still under downward pressure, we lowered our 2024-2026 profit forecast. We expect the company to achieve net profit of 0.72/0.82/0.92 billion yuan in 2024-2026 (previous value was 1.59/1.85/1.92 billion yuan), which is -58.7%/+13.1%/+12.5%; EPS is 0.27/0.30/0.34 yuan, respectively; corresponding to the current stock price PE is 27.8/24.6/21.9 times. Considering the good growth in the company's PV production and sales, the “buy” rating was maintained.
Gross profit margin is under pressure in the short term, and production capacity is diversified
The gross margin of the 2024Q1-Q3 company was about 19.0%, -4.4pct year on year; the gross margin of the 2024Q3 company was about 7.7%, -14.9pct month-on-month. Currently, the company has 24 high-quality float glass production lines (16,600 tons/day), 9 photovoltaic glass production lines (10,600 tons/day), and is constructing 2 photovoltaic glass production lines (2,400 tons/day). The production capacity of float glass ranks second in the industry, and the production capacity scale of photovoltaic glass and energy-saving glass ranks third in the industry. Furthermore, the company's diversified business is growing steadily. Currently, the company has 4 high-performance electronic glass production lines (345 tons/day), 2 neutral borosilicate pharmaceutical glass production lines (65 tons/day), 11 coated energy-saving glass production lines (annual production capacity 52.8 million square meters), 33 insulating glass production lines (annual production capacity 9.1 million square meters), and is currently building 2 photovoltaic glass production lines (2,400 tons/day).
The cost rate increased slightly during the period, and the price of float glass is expected to stabilize
The 2024Q1-Q3 company's expense ratio was 12.44%, +1.80pct year on year. Among them, sales expenses rate/ management expense rate/ R&D expense rate/ financial expenses ratio were 1.16%/5.14%/4.14%/1.99%, respectively, +0.12pct/+0.13pct/+0.45pct/+1.09pct, respectively. 2024Q1-Q3's net operating cash flow was $0.299 billion, -66.25% YoY. Since the government introduced a package of steady growth and incremental policies in September, the overall inventory of domestic float glass has continued to decline. According to data from Zhuochuang Information, as of October 24, the total inventory volume of manufacturers in key monitoring provinces was 50.59 million weight boxes, down 13.22 million weight boxes from September 26, a decrease of 20.72%. The number of inventory days is about 26.06 days. Float glass is expected to benefit from a steady recovery in real estate companies.
Risk warning: Glass prices fell sharply, real estate demand declined, and PV glass production fell short of expectations.
