三季度为筹备四季度旺季销售，平台推广、新品营销等力度加大，盈利能力短期承压。三季报毛利率为44.9%，相较中报时的46.5%有所回落。销售费用率38%，相较中报时的36.6%有所提升；主要因品牌营销推广力度强化，尤其是更大力度的进行新品开发和新品推广、加大多营销渠道的投入以及品牌级别的宣传升级等。同时营销推广成本上涨、人工成本增加，抵销了平台佣金费率下降的影响。剔除会计准则调整后运费计算方式的影响，毛利率与销售费用率合计同比23 年三季报对利润率产生3.1pct 拖累。管理费用率同比下降0.2pct 至2.1%，财务费用率下降0.1pct 至-0.2%，主要系汇率波动导致的汇兑损益变动所致，最终归母净利率下降2.2pct 至2.9%。Key points of investment:
The company released its report for the third quarter of 2024, and the results for the third quarter of a single were under pressure. In the first three quarters, the company achieved total revenue of 6.802 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.5%, and net profit to mother of 0.195 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%. Revenue increased 64% to 2.6 billion yuan in the third quarter, and net profit to mother fell 156% year-on-year to a loss of 40.18 million yuan. Performance fell short of expectations, mainly due to pressure on gross margins due to rising freight rates, and increased product promotion and marketing launch of new platforms.
By business, both categories are growing rapidly, and the apparel business has performed well. Apparel accessories have been deeply cultivated by the company over a long period of time, and the underlying capabilities have been highly reused in apparel segments to enable brand incubation and development. At the same time, the market share and brand influence of various clothing segments have increased under the impetus of increased new product development and marketing measures this year. The apparel category revenue for the first three quarters was 4.86 billion yuan, an increase of 58% over the previous year. After completing the streamlining and focus of categories, the non-apparel accessories category benefited from new product development, channel expansion and enhanced marketing investment, and maintained a growth trend. The revenue of the non-apparel accessories category in the first three quarters was 1.64 billion yuan, an increase of 38% over the previous year.
In the third quarter, in preparation for peak sales in the fourth quarter, platform promotion, new product marketing, etc. intensified, and profitability was under pressure in the short term. The gross margin for the third quarter report was 44.9%, down from 46.5% at the time of the interim report. The sales expense ratio was 38%, up from 36.6% at the time of the preliminary report; mainly due to the strengthening of brand marketing and promotion, in particular, more vigorous development and promotion of new products, increased investment in multiple marketing channels, and brand level promotion upgrades. At the same time, marketing and promotion costs have risen and labor costs have increased, offsetting the impact of the reduction in the platform's commission rate. Excluding the impact of the freight calculation method after the accounting standards were adjusted, the gross margin and sales expense ratio dragged down the profit margin by 3.1 pct compared to the '23 quarterly report. The management expense ratio decreased by 0.2 pct to 2.1% year on year, and the financial expense ratio decreased by 0.1 pct to -0.2%, mainly due to changes in exchange gains and losses due to exchange rate fluctuations. Ultimately, the net mother interest rate fell by 2.2 pct to 2.9%.
Inventories are expected to gradually improve at the end of the year due to a large-scale increase in stock preparation during the peak season. At the end of the third quarter, the company's inventory was 2.08 billion yuan, an increase of 159% over the beginning of the year. This was mainly due to the need to increase inventory preparation due to an increase in sales volume and an increase in the number of new product developments, compounded by preparations during the peak season at the end of the year. Cash flow from operating activities fell 243% year over year to -0.49 billion yuan, mainly due to increased inventory taking up capital, and sales are expected to gradually improve in the fourth quarter with the peak season. At the end of the period, book money was basically flat at 0.77 billion yuan year on year.
It is expected that after the peak sales season in the fourth quarter, inventory will gradually decline, and operating cash flow will also improve.
Saiwei Era is a technology-driven cross-border e-commerce enterprise. It empowers the entire business process with a digital operation system, enhances the ability to control goods with flexible supply and small orders. In the future, brand incubation experience will continue to be reused, expanding the brand matrix and business growth, and opening up room for growth. Considering that the company's category expansion and new product promotion continue in the short term, it is still necessary to increase marketing investment in the early stages of the product, and profit margins fluctuate in the short term. Therefore, we raised the company's revenue forecast and lowered the profit forecast. The company's net profit to mother for 24-26 is 0.35/0.45/0.57 billion yuan (originally 0.45/0.58/0.7 billion yuan), respectively, and the corresponding PE is 29/23/18 times. Considering that the company is currently still in a period of rapid growth, and high growth can absorb the valuation, from a PEG perspective, the 25-year average value of the company is 0.9, giving the company 0.9 times PEG and a target market value of 11.3 billion yuan. There is still room for 10% increase, downgrading from “buy” to a “gain” rating.
Risk warning: online sales channel risk; overseas business risk; risk of new product sales falling short of expectations.
