业绩低于预期 ，维持“增持”评级。考虑到金价持续新高下克重黄金品类动销承压、加盟商拿货意愿疲弱，下调2024-2026 年EPS 分别为0.99/1.14/1.30 元（原值1.13/1.32/1.50 元），给予2024 年14x PE估值，下调目标价至13.86 元（原值14.32 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
2024Q3 performance fell short of expectations, gold prices continued to rise and sales were weak, and franchisees' willingness to replenish goods was under pressure, waiting for terminal sales to gradually pick up.
Key points of investment:
The performance fell short of expectations and maintained an “gain” rating. Considering that the price of gold continues to rise and sales pressure in the heavy gold category is weak, the 2024-2026 EPS was lowered to 0.99/1.14/1.30 yuan (original value 1.13/1.32/1.50 yuan), respectively, to give the 2024 14x PE valuation, and the target price was lowered to 13.86 yuan (original value 14.32 yuan) to maintain the “gain” rating.
Performance summary: In the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was 10.809 billion yuan/yoy -13.49%, net profit attributable to mother was 0.855 billion yuan/yoy -21.95%, after deducting non-return net profit of 0.837 billion yuan/yoy -20.55%; of these: 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 2.612 billion yuan/yoy -40.91% in a single quarter, achieving net profit of 0.253 billion yuan/yoy -28.70%, net profit to mother Net profit to mother 0.252 billion yuan/yoy -27.23%.
Gold prices continue to rise, and franchisees' willingness to replenish goods is under pressure, waiting for terminal sales to gradually pick up.
2024Q3 revenue and profit are still under pressure, mainly due to gold prices repeatedly reaching new highs during the quarter, strong wait-and-see sentiment among gold jewelry consumers, and the continued decline in downstream customer enthusiasm for inventory replenishment, and the impact of a sharp decline in raw gold revenue. 2024Q3's revenue from self-operated offline business in a single quarter was 0.391 billion yuan/ -3.46%, including mosaic sales 0.019 billion yuan/ -21.46%, gold sales 0.358 billion yuan/ -3.50%; self-operated online (e-commerce) business revenue 0.462 billion yuan/ +14.07%, of which mosaic sales 0.032 billion yuan/ +2.96%, gold sales 0.261 billion yuan/ +4.82%; franchise business revenue 1.728 billion yuan/ -51.60%, of which mosaic sales 0.161 billion/ -6.94%, gold sales 1.291 billion yuan/ -58.17%. As consumer confidence gradually picks up, the second half of the year and the traditional peak season of the Spring Festival progresses, we will wait for terminal sales and franchisees' stock replenishment to pick up marginally.
Focusing on Guben Peiyuan's business strategy, the channel layout seeks a new balance of scale and efficiency. In the current environment where consumer confidence is insufficient and gold prices continue to be high, the company implements Guben Peiyuan's business philosophy, focusing on improving the product structure of existing stores, enhancing the profitability of individual stores, and restoring franchisee confidence; at the same time, incubating a new growth curve through building a brand matrix. The company continues to lay out its own stores, and is committed to building retail benchmark stores, improving supply chain operation and capital efficiency, and focusing on seeking a new balance between scale and efficiency. By the end of 2024Q3, the number of the company's stores reached 5,235 (4886 franchised, 349 self-operated), with a net increase of 111 franchised stores and a net increase of 18 self-operated stores, for a total net increase of 129 stores.
Risk warning: Industry competition increases risk, and fluctuations in gold prices affect demand and cost risks.
