维持增持评级 ，上调目标价至45.37元(+11.96)。根据最新业绩情况我们下调了盈利预测，预计2024-2026 年归母净利润分别为1.48(-0.70)/2.96(-0.75)/4.56(-1.45) 亿元， EPS 分别为0.22(-0.10)/0.43(-0.11)/0.67(-0.21)元，考虑到公司作为国内网络安全行业龙头及国家队，在市场拓展上存在较大优势，同时网安行业景气度触底叠加市场情绪转好，因此给予一定估值溢价，按照PE 估值给予公司2025年105 倍PE，上调目标价至45.37 元。Introduction to this report:
The company's overall performance is in line with market expectations. Net operating cash flow increased by 0.457 billion yuan year on year in the first three quarters. As the company focuses on data security and increases China Electronics holdings to strengthen its business advantages, future performance is expected to exceed expectations.
Key points of investment:
The increase rating was maintained, and the target price was raised to 45.37 yuan (+11.96). According to the latest performance situation, we lowered our profit forecast. The net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 1.48 (-0.70) /2.96 (-0.75) /4.56 (-1.45) billion yuan, respectively, and EPS is 0.22 (-0.10) /0.43 (-0.11) /0.67 (-0.21) yuan, respectively. Considering that the company, as a domestic cybersecurity industry leader and national team, has great advantages in market expansion. At the same time, the cybersecurity industry's prosperity bottomed out and market valuation sentiment improved, so a fixed price was given. According to the PE valuation, the company was given 105 times PE in 2025, and the target price was raised to 45.37 yuan.
The company's performance was generally in line with expectations, and the scale of revenue was slightly reduced. The company's results for the first three quarters were under short-term pressure, achieving operating income of 2.711 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.47%; net profit to mother of -1.176 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.047 billion yuan; the company's revenue for the third quarter of 2024 was 0.927 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.95%; and net profit to mother was -0.356 billion yuan, an increase of 0.013 billion yuan year-on-year.
The company attaches importance to improving the quality of cash flow and effective cost-side control. The company's operating quality improved dramatically in the first three quarters. Net operating cash flow was -1.37 billion yuan, an increase of 0.457 billion yuan over the previous year.
Furthermore, in terms of cost control, the company's performance was outstanding. The total of the three main expenses in the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.609 billion yuan, down 24.15% year on year, but due to the reduction in revenue scale, the company's expense ratio for the first three quarters reached 97.72%, up 3.63 pct year on year; in the third quarter, the company's R&D investment was 0.324 billion yuan, down 4.30% year on year, and R&D investment accounted for 34.91% of operating income, up 6.80 pct from the same period last year.
Focusing on the field of data security, China Electronics strengthens its business advantages by increasing its holdings. In the context of digital transformation, Qianxin focuses on the data security market and is committed to enhancing its core competitiveness and influence in this field, ranking first in the data security software market for two consecutive years. In July of this year, CLP Financial Investment, a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Electronics, plans to increase its shares by 5%.
After the transaction is completed, China Electronics will collectively control 23.10% of the company's total share capital through CLP Financial Investment and Mingluo Investment. China Electronics and Qianxin are rooted in different security fields. They have deep technical accumulation and strong business complementarity. By integrating the resources of both parties to jointly promote technological innovation and application expansion, the company's position as the backbone of national cybersecurity will also be further consolidated, and its market influence and competitiveness will also increase.
Risk warning: Policy implementation falls short of expectations, and the company's R&D technology iteration falls short of expectations.
