2）2024 前三季度公司资管业务实现手续费净收入8.4 亿元，yoy-11.7%。其中2024Q3 资管业务收入2.8 亿元，yoy-4.4%/qoq-1.7%。公司控股中金基金截至2024三季度末非货基AUM 745 亿元，yoy+35%。occurrences
CICC released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved cumulative operating income of 13.449 billion yuan, yoy -23.00%; net profit to mother of 2.858 billion yuan, yoy -37.97%; weighted average ROE of 2.64%, a decrease of 2.20 pct from the same period last year. Among them, 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 4.539 billion yuan, yoy -10.03% /qoq -9.91%; net profit to mother 0.63 billion yuan, yoy -39.82% /qoq -36.30%.
Fee business: Investment banks continued to consolidate their leading position, and the size of CICC funds continued to grow 1) The company's net brokerage fee revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.56 billion yuan, yoy -27.1%, accounting for 19.2% of the main securities revenue (excluding bulk trade and government subsidies), yoy-1.2pct, of which 2024Q3 company's net brokerage fee revenue was 0.79 billion yuan, yoy -22.1% /qoq -15.8%.
2) The company's asset management business achieved net handling fee revenue of 0.84 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, YOY -11.7%. Among them, the 2024Q3 asset management business revenue was 0.28 billion yuan, yoy -4.4% /qoq -1.7%. As of the end of the third quarter of 2024, the company held a non-cargo AUM of 74.5 billion yuan, yoy +35%.
3) In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's investment bank achieved net fee revenue of 2.06 billion yuan, yoy -21.3%, accounting for 15.5% of the main securities revenue (excluding bulk commerce and government subsidies). Among them, the 2024Q3 investment banking business fee net revenue was 0.78 billion yuan, yoy +23.9% /qoq -5.9%. (1) According to the release date statistics, the company's domestic lead underwriting amount for the first three quarters of 2024 was 3.6 billion yuan, yoy -88%, ranking fifth in the market; (2) A-share refinancing issuance scale was 16.7 billion, yoy -74%, and the market share was 17%, ranking second in the industry. (3) Domestic debt is 859.2 billion, yoy +4%.
Capital business: The rate of table expansion has slowed down, and the return on investment has declined 1) We estimate that in 2024Q3, the company's operating leverage was 5.08 times, down 0.15 times from the previous year; the investment leverage was 3.37 times, down 0.23 times from the previous year.
2) In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's net investment income (including exchange income) was 7.37 billion yuan, yoy -18.4%. The company's net investment revenue accounted for 55.3% of the main securities revenue (excluding bulk commerce and government subsidies), yoy +4.7pct.
Among them, the 2024Q3 company invested 2.47 billion yuan in net income, yoy -12.1% /qoq -3.9%. As of the end of the third quarter of 2024, the company's financial asset investment scale was 366.6 billion yuan, yoy -1.2%, of which transactional financial assets were 289.1 billion yuan and yoy -7.8%. The estimated annual return on investment of the company in 2024Q3 was 2.67%, yoy-0.38pct.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Considering that short-term equity market shocks affect the company's investment income, we expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 21.1/21.8/22.7 billion, respectively, -8.2%/+3.1%/+4.2%, respectively; 2024-2026 net profit to mother will be 5.2/5.6/6 billion, respectively, -15.9%/+7.5% YoY; and EPS 1.07/1.15/1.24 yuan/share, respectively. We believe that the company's international business is leading, and the wealth management business is expected to recover as the equity market recovers, and maintain a “buy” rating based on the company's historical situation.
Risk warning: Market recovery falls short of expectations, liquidity is tight, the process of entering the market for residents' capital is slowing down, and the risk of policy changes
