Orient Securities (600958): Significant improvements in self-operation are driving the company's performance to increase

guolian · Nov 1

事件

东方证券发布2024 三季报，9M2024 公司累计实现营业收入140.8 亿，同比+2.81%；归母净利润33.0 亿，同比+15.57%；加权平均ROE4.16%，较去年同期+0.49pct。

其中2024Q3 单季度公司实现营业收入55.08 亿元，同比+10.16%/环比+11.03%，归母净利润11.91 亿元，同比+24.58%/环比-2.81%。

收费类业务：财富管理业务随行就市，债承规模同比增长1）公司9M2024 累计实现经纪业务手续费净收入16.0 亿，同比-26.0%，2024Q3单季度实现经纪业务收入5.5 亿，同比-20.0%/环比-1.6%，2024Q3 经纪业务收入占证券主营收入比重16.1%，同比-5.4pct。

2）公司9M2024 累计实现资管业务收入10.2 亿，同比-37.1%，2024Q3 单季度实现资管业务收入3.1 亿，同比-34.8%/环比-11.0%，预计主因公募基金费率改革后公司主动权益公募基金费率下降。9M2024 累计长股投收入（主要是汇添富基金）3.1 亿元，同比-36.3%，2024Q3 单季度0.8 亿，同比-39.4%/环比-33.9%。

从管理规模来看， 2024 三季度末汇添富基金及东证资管非货基AUM 分别为5024/1506 亿元，同比分别+7.8%/-11.7%；股混AUM 分别为2490/993 亿元，同比分别-4.6%/-19.9%。

3）公司9M2024 累计实现投行收入8.3 亿元，同比-30.2%，2024Q3 单季度实现投行业务收入2.8 亿，同比-37.8%/环比+3.3%。（1）按发行日统计，9M2024 公司再融资规模3 亿，同比-90%。（2）债承规模3632 亿，同比+20%。

资金业务：投资业务大幅改善，股质规模进一步压降1）公司9M2024 累计实现投资净收入41.4 亿，同比+77.1%，占证券主营收入比重45.4%。2024Q3 单季度投资净收入18.6 亿元，同比+96.6%/环比+26.2%。截至2024 三季度公司末金融投资规模2029 亿元，同比+6%，其中交易性金融资产1015亿元，同比-5%，2024Q3 投资杠杆测算为2.50 倍，同比+0.07 倍；我们测算2024Q3年化投资收益率为3.66%，同比+1.63pct。

2) 信用业务方面，公司9M2024 累计实现利息净收入9.2 亿，同比-30.9%，2024Q3单季度利息净收入2.2 亿元，同比-32.8%/环比-43.5%。9M2024 末公司买入反售金融资产规模37.9 亿元，较2023 年末-30.2%，股质规模进一步压降。融资融券方面，在市场业务规模下行的情况下，公司融资业务规模逆势增长，9M2024 末公司融出资金235.3 亿，较2023 年末+11.7%。

盈利预测、估值与评级

考虑到权益市场有所回暖下，公司自营收入增加，我们上调公司投资收益率假设，从而上调盈利预测，我们预计公司2024-2026 年营收分别为180/194/212 亿，同比+5.3%/+7.9%/+9.4%; 归母净利润分别为44/51/55 亿, 同比+60.1%/+15.2%/+7.7%；EPS 分别为0.52/0.60/0.64 元/股。我们预期后续公司有望受益于交投热度和新发基金市场回暖，业绩有望修复，并结合公司历史情况，维持“买入”评级。

风险提示：市场修复不及预期、流动性收紧，居民资金入市进程放缓、政策变化风险

occurrences

Orient Securities released its 2024 three-quarter report. 9M2024 achieved cumulative operating income of 14.08 billion yuan, +2.81% year over year; net profit to mother of 3.3 billion yuan, +15.57% year over year; and a weighted average ROE of 4.16%, +0.49pct compared to the same period last year.

Among them, in the 2024Q3 single quarter, the company achieved operating income of 5.508 billion yuan, +10.16% /month-on-month +11.03%, and net profit of 1.191 billion yuan to mother, +24.58%/-2.81% month-on-month.

Fee business: The wealth management business went public, and the debt scale increased year-on-year 1) The company's 9M2024 achieved cumulative net brokerage fee revenue of 1.6 billion, -26.0% year over year, and achieved brokerage business revenue of 0.55 billion in a single quarter of 2024Q3, -20.0% /-1.6% month-on-month. 2024Q3 brokerage business revenue accounted for 16.1% of main securities revenue, -5.4 pct year on year.

2) The company's 9M2024 achieved cumulative asset management revenue of 1.02 billion yuan, and 2024Q3 achieved asset management business revenue of 0.31 billion in a single quarter, -34.8% YoY/-11.0% month-on-month. It is expected that the company's active equity public fund rate will decline after the public fund rate reform. 9M2024's cumulative long-term stock investment revenue (mainly Huitianfu Fund) was 0.31 billion yuan, -36.3% YoY, and 2024Q3 was 0.08 billion in a single quarter, -39.4% YoY/-33.9% YoY.

In terms of management scale, the non-cargo AUM of Huitianfu Fund and Eastern Securities Asset Management at the end of the third quarter of 2024 was 502.4/150.6 billion yuan, respectively, +7.8%/-11.7% year on year; mixed stock AUM was 249/99.3 billion yuan, respectively, -4.6%/-19.9% year on year.

3) The company's 9M2024 achieved cumulative investment banking revenue of 0.83 billion yuan, or -30.2% year over year, and 2024Q3 achieved investment banking revenue of 0.28 billion yuan in a single quarter, -37.8% YoY/+3.3% month-on-month. (1) According to the release date statistics, the 9M2024 company's refinancing scale was 0.3 billion, -90% compared to the same period last year. (2) Debt debt of 363.2 billion, +20% year-on-year.

Capital business: The investment business was greatly improved, and the share size was further reduced 1) The company's 9M2024 achieved a cumulative net investment income of 4.14 billion yuan, +77.1% over the same period last year, accounting for 45.4% of the main securities revenue. The net investment income of 2024Q3 in a single quarter was 1.86 billion yuan, +96.6% YoY/+26.2% YoY. As of the end of the third quarter of 2024, the financial investment scale of the company was 202.9 billion yuan, +6% year on year, including transactional financial assets of 101.5 billion yuan, -5% year on year. The estimated 2024Q3 investment leverage was 2.50 times, +0.07 times year on year; we estimated the return on investment in 2024Q3 was 3.66%, +1.63 pct year on year.

2) In terms of credit business, the company 9M2024 achieved cumulative net interest income of 0.92 billion yuan, and net interest income of 0.22 billion yuan in a single quarter of 2024Q3, or -32.8% YoY /-43.5%. At the end of 9M2024, the company bought and resold financial assets of 3.79 billion yuan. Compared with -30.2% at the end of 2023, the share size dropped further. In terms of securities financing, in the face of declining market business, the scale of the company's financing business bucked the trend. At the end of 9M2024, the company raised 23.53 billion in capital, +11.7% compared to the end of 2023.

Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings

Considering the recovery in the equity market and the increase in the company's own revenue, we raised the company's return on investment assumptions, and thereby raised the profit forecast. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 18/19.4/21.2 billion, respectively, +5.3%/+7.9%/+9.4%; net profit to mother will be 4.4/5.1/5.5 billion, respectively, +60.1%/+15.2%/+7.7%; EPS is 0.52/0.60/0.64 yuan/share, respectively. We expect subsequent companies to benefit from the popularity of trading and the recovery of the new development fund market. Performance is expected to recover, and maintain a “buy” rating based on the company's historical situation.

Risk warning: Market recovery falls short of expectations, liquidity is tight, the process of entering the market for residents' capital is slowing down, and the risk of policy changes

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东方证券(600958)：自营显著改善驱动公司业绩正增

Orient Securities (600958): Significant improvements in self-operation are driving the company's performance to increase

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