According to the Securities Times App, Everbright Securities released a research report stating that the demand sentiment in the photovoltaic and wind power industries is expected to improve in 2025, with continued global grid investment. Against the backdrop of capacity expansion tightening, clearing outdated production capacity is a crucial step to mitigate the oversupply situation in the photovoltaic industry. 2025 H1 is expected to be a significant turning point for industry capacity clearing, and overall industry performance is expected to improve in 2025 H2. In addition, the market remains optimistic about the future growth prospects of offshore wind power. Leading wind turbine companies have a stable market position, focusing on the resonant growth of wind power and grid exports.

The main points of view of Everbright Securities are as follows:

Global photovoltaic demand is entering a phase of slow growth, with supply clearing being a crucial turning point for the industry.

1) In the context of tightening capacity expansion, clearing outdated production capacity is a crucial step in easing the oversupply situation in the industry. The bank's support level change is believed to play a decisive role in influencing this turning point, making 2025 H1 an important turning point for industry capacity clearing.

2) Against the backdrop of significant industry chain price declines, key enterprises in the main industry chain will continue to face pressures on production operations and impairment provisions in 2024. However, as the decline in industry chain prices gradually slows down, coupled with the improved demand sentiment in 2025, the overall industry performance is expected to improve in 2025 H2.

3) Photovoltaic demand has transitioned from high-speed growth phase to a steady low-speed growth phase. Excellent cost control capabilities, leading technological strength, ample capital reserves, and other advantages will ensure that leading companies have a higher probability of crossing the cycle. If stock prices experience an oversold situation, they still retain high investment value.

The approval of offshore wind is warming up, waiting for construction to speed up.

Based on the reserves of the offshore wind project, approval progress, and policy expectations, the market still maintains an optimistic attitude towards the future growth of offshore wind. The short-term progress of construction, military, and offshore policies provide room for maneuver, focusing on the profitability of the stable submarine cable segment.

The wind turbine manufacturers have been engaged in a long-term price war, with the leading companies maintaining a relatively stable position. For companies with significantly lower PB valuations, they can sustain performance stability based on overseas expansion, power plant sales, etc., and there is room for valuation recovery.

Offshore wind power continues to expand, focusing on markets including European offshore wind and Southeast Asian onshore wind. It is essential to closely monitor the progress of overseas projects and the pace of overseas order deliveries. Offshore wind power helps hedge against industry cycles and enhances valuation.

The price of solar energy storage is flat, playing the strongest role in meeting energy storage demand.

In the emerging markets of Asia, Africa, and Latin America, the demand for solar energy storage is more elastic. Export data of inverters is a key tracking indicator, and it is crucial to closely monitor electricity prices, subsidy policies, and power shortages in important countries.

The energy storage market in the United States has been prosperous for some time, with relatively good profitability. However, uncertainties brought by the U.S. general election and trade policies require close attention to the situation of the November U.S. election and continuous monitoring of monthly installation trends.

The European household energy storage market is gradually recovering. With a low base in 2024, it is expected to see a year-on-year growth in 2025, especially for larger energy storage systems.

The increasing instability of the international situation may lead to regional wars, causing power shortages or price increases in bulk energy products, resulting in a surge in demand that needs to be closely monitored.

Global power grid investment continues to be strong, with both main and distribution networks resonating with export prosperity.

The certainty of growth in the power grid sector from 2024 to 2025 is stronger, making it a fundamental sector for investment, and the sector's performance growth can be gradually realized. Structurally:

1) Investment in the distribution side, and the export data of power equipment under the "Belt and Road Initiative" exhibit stronger certainty, making them sustainable investments;

2) It is crucial to focus on the approval progress and performance realization synergy of ultra-high-voltage projects;

3) Demand for electrical equipment is strong in developed countries, requiring particular attention to the timing of performance realization in export business and changes in international trade policies;

4) In terms of power grid digitization, it is important to focus on digitization, policies related to power marketization, as well as macroeconomic data.

Investment advice:

(1) Photovoltaic: ① Auxiliary materials: Focus on Hangzhou First Applied Material (603806.SH), Flat Glass Group (601865.SH); ② Focus on GCL Tech (03800) and Tongwei Co.,Ltd. (600438.SH) with technological, cost, and scale advantages; ③ Focus on high-quality integrated leaders that are oversold: JinkoSolar (688223.SH), Longi Green Energy Technology (601012.SH), JA Solar Technology (002459.SZ).

(2) Wind power: ① Offshore winds: Focus on Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables (603606.SH), Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology (600522.SH); ② Wind turbines: Focus on Goldwind Science& Technology (002202.SZ,02208); ③ Offshore projects: Focus on Dajin Heavy Industry (002487.SZ), Shanghai Taisheng Wind Power Equipment (300129.SZ).

(3) Energy storage: Focus on energy storage PCS, photovoltaic inverter segments, and targets with high overseas market share: Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ), Do-Fluoride Chemicals Co.,Ltd. (605117.SH), Sineng Electric (300827.SZ), Acrel Co., Ltd. (688472.SH), Elion Energy (688717.SH), Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.,Ltd. (688390.SH), Jiangsu Tongrun Equipment Technology (002150.SZ), Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric (300693.SZ), Hemai Co.,Ltd. (688032.SH), Yuneng Technology (688348.SH), Ginlong Technologies (300763.SZ), Huabao Xinneng (301327.SZ).

(4) Power grid: ① Distribution side and Belt and Road Initiative concept for offshore: Focus on Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric (601567.SH), Sieyuan Electric (002028.SZ), Hexing Electrical (603556.SH), Dongfang Electronics (000682.SZ), Willfar Information Technology (688100.SH), Beijing Sifang Automation (601126.SH), Huaming Power Equipment (002270.SZ); ② Ultra high pressure: Focus on Henan Pinggao Electric (600312.SH), XJ Electric Co.,Ltd. (000400.SZ), China XD Electric (601179.SH), Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric (600550.SH), NARI Technology (600406.SH); ③ Developed countries in offshore projects: Focus on Jinpan Technology (688676.SH), Eaglerise Electric & Electronic (002922.SZ); ④ Grid digitalization: Focus on State Grid Information & Telecommunication (600131.SH), State Grid New Energy Development Co.,Ltd. (301162.SZ), Acrel Co., Ltd. (300286.SZ).

Risk analysis: Risks of policy outcomes falling short of expectations, risks of underinvestment in power grid, risks of changes in international export environment, risks of intensified competition.