2024Q3，油汇价格改善缓解成本费用压力，前三季度毛利率为 6.56%，实现扭亏为盈。成本端来看，2024 年Q1-Q3，公司实现营业成本1197.46 亿元，同比+22.99%，为2019年同期（832.28亿元）的 143.88%；单季成本来看，2024年Q1/Q2/Q3，公司单季营业成本分别为387.29亿元/387.41亿元/422.77亿元。因Q3油价下降，公司成本端提升主要系业务量增长带来的变动成本增加。2024年前三季度，公司毛利率为6.56%，虽较2019年同期（19.26%）仍有修复空间，年内进一步环比上升。Incident: In terms of operating data, in terms of passenger traffic, from January to September 2024, the company's domestic, international, and regional passenger traffic was 101.7484 million, 12.0494 million, and 3.5382 million, respectively, 147.78%, 93.48%, and 83.27% in the same period in 2019; in terms of capacity supply and demand comparison, from January to September 2024, the company's domestic, international, and regional ask/rpk was 153.39% for the same period in 2019/ 150.65% 84.71%/81.89%, 92.75%/85.19%; in terms of occupancy rate, in September 2024, the company's domestic, international and regional occupancy rates were 81.70%, 75.70%, and 68.40%, respectively, 99.88%, 94.98%, and 99.71% for the same period in 2019. In terms of financial data, the company achieved cumulative revenue of 128.149 billion yuan in 2024 Q1-Q3, the company achieved cumulative revenue of 128.149 billion yuan, compared to the same period in 2019 (103.077) 124.32% (billion yuan); in Q1-Q3 of 2024, the company's net profit to mother was 1.362 billion yuan, which was 22.15% of the same period in 2019 (6.762 billion yuan); net profit after deduction was 0.433 billion yuan.
2024Q3, demand from the summer travel industry was strongly released, and the company's revenue side rebounded further year over year, and single-quarter revenue reached a new high during the year. On the revenue side, out of 128.149 billion yuan of revenue achieved by the company in Q1-Q3 2024, Q1/Q2/Q3 single-quarter revenue was 40.066 billion yuan/39.455 billion yuan/48.63 billion yuan, respectively.
Due to the strong release of demand during the 2024Q3 summer travel season, the company's business volume increased significantly. Although there was a year-on-year decline in ticket price levels due to factors such as current pressure on China's purchasing power and changes and adjustments in the travel consumption structure, the increase in business volume still drove the company's Q3 revenue to increase year-on-year, reaching a new high during the year.
2024Q3, oil remittance price improvements eased cost pressure. The gross margin for the first three quarters was 6.56%, turning a loss into a profit. On the cost side, in Q1-Q3 of 2024, the company achieved operating costs of 119.746 billion yuan, +22.99%, or 143.88% of the same period in 2019 (83.228 billion yuan); in terms of single-quarter costs, in Q1/Q2/Q3 in 2024, the company's single-quarter operating costs were 38.729 billion yuan/38.741 billion yuan/42.277 billion yuan, respectively. Due to the drop in oil prices in Q3, the increase in the company's cost side is mainly due to the increase in variable costs due to the increase in business volume. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's gross margin was 6.56%. Although there is still room for repair compared to the same period in 2019 (19.26%), it increased further month-on-month during the year.
On the cost side, 2024Q1-Q3, the company's sales expenses (4.992 billion yuan), management expenses (3.922 billion yuan), R&D expenses (0.293 billion yuan), and financial expenses (4.456 billion yuan) cost ratios were 3.89%, 3.06%, 0.23%, and 3.48%, respectively, compared with -0.10pct, -0.48pct, +0.03pct, and -2.55pct for the same period in 2023. The RMB exchange rate rebounded slightly during the year, and the level of the company's financial expenses fell year-on-year.
2024Q1-Q3, the company operates a total of 924 aircraft, and the fleet structure continues to be optimized. As of the end of the reporting period, the Group operated a total of 924 aircraft. Among them, 2024Q3 introduced a total of 12 and withdrew 3. Within 2024, the company introduced mainly A321NEO, 320NEO, B737 series, and ARJ21-700 aircraft, and withdrew mainly A330-200, A320, and B737 series flights.
Investment advice: We maintain our previous earnings forecasts. According to our forecast, the company is expected to achieve basic earnings per share of 0.04/0.30/0.41 yuan in 2024/25/26, corresponding PE of 204.48X/24.66X/17.71X, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the risk that the recovery of international routes falls short of expectations, the risk of a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the risk of RMB exchange rate fluctuations.
