新能源汽车业务保持较好增速，电梯业务加大市场开拓力度。前三季度新能源汽车收入104 亿元，同比增长约96%，目前电驱系统类产品占比约80%，业务毛利率相对偏低，市场竞争激烈，公司正通过提升规模、内部挖潜、效率提升推动盈利水平的提升。四季度是汽车行业的高峰期，预计四季度新能源汽车业务收入仍将实现较好增长。另轨道交通/智慧电梯收入36/3.4 亿元，同比下降约-6%/-9%，国内新梯需求较弱，公司正通过海外跨国企业客户、电梯后服务市场及大配套业务来弥补国内需求的下滑。Operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 increased 26.22% year over year, and net profit to mother increased 1.04% year over year.
In the first three quarters of 2020, we achieved operating income of 25.397 billion yuan (+26.22%), net profit of 3.354 billion yuan (+1.04%), net profit of 3.135 billion yuan (+2.91%) after deducting net profit of 3.135 billion yuan (+2.91%) for the third quarter of a single quarter, net profit of 1.236 billion yuan (-0.54%) to mother, net profit of 1.066 billion yuan (-9.54%). The relatively rapid increase in revenue in the first three quarters was due to the continuous increase in NEV penetration rate and the rapid increase in NEV revenue due to the company's designated model SOP. The profit growth rate during the same period fell short of the revenue growth rate mainly due to 1) the gross profit margin of 31.02% in the first three quarters, down 4.76 percentage points year on year; 2) Fair value change income from equity investment projects, fair value change revenue -0.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of -111.98%; 3) Subsidiary Huichuan Control applicable income tax rate change The same period last year was exempt from corporate income tax. 10% was applied in the current period, and income tax expenses were 0.238 billion yuan, an increase of 238.64% over the previous year.
Sales were under pressure in the third quarter through automation, and lithium battery photovoltaics had a negative impact or decline in the fourth quarter. General automation revenue in the first three quarters was 10.9 billion yuan, up 4% year on year. Among them, the revenue from general inverters/general servo systems/PLC&HMI/industrial robots was about 37/4.3/1/0.8 billion yuan. The growth rate of industrial robots was higher than that of general automation. The year-on-year decline in the third quarter of the single quarter was mainly due to a sharp decline in demand in the photovoltaic lithium battery industry. At the same time, PLC was growing well in 3C/machine tools/metal products industries, partially offsetting the impact of the decline in the photovoltaic and lithium battery industries. The company's October business orders are expected to achieve positive year-on-year growth, and the downstream process industry, construction machinery electrification, and pan-3C performance is relatively good. Furthermore, the photovoltaic lithium battery base declined in the fourth quarter of last year, and currently lithium batteries benefit from overseas projects and stabilizing demand for 3C batteries, and the negative impact has decreased.
The NEV business maintained a good growth rate, and the elevator business increased its market development efforts. NEV revenue in the first three quarters was 10.4 billion yuan, up about 96% year on year. Currently, electric drive system products account for about 80%. The gross margin of the business is relatively low, and market competition is fierce. The company is promoting an increase in profit levels by increasing scale, internal exploration, and efficiency. The fourth quarter is the peak period for the automobile industry, and it is expected that NEV business revenue will continue to grow well in the fourth quarter. In addition, rail transit/smart elevator revenue was 3.6/0.34 billion yuan, down about -6%/-9% year on year. Domestic demand for new elevators is weak. The company is making up for the decline in domestic demand through overseas multinational enterprise customers, elevator after-sales service markets, and major supporting businesses.
Investment advice: The company is a domestic industrial control leader. In the short term, due to changes in product structure and increased competition, the performance growth rate has slowed, and the long-term growth trend will not change. At present, the NEV business has entered a harvest period, and profitability is gradually increasing. At the same time, demand for industrial control is expected to recover, and overall performance may pick up. We lowered our profit forecast. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is 4.969/5.966/7.205 billion yuan (previous value 5.181/6.265/7.466 billion yuan), corresponding to PE 30/25/21 times, and maintain the “better than the market” rating.
Risk warning: Domestic substitution progress falls short of expectations; product breakthroughs fall short of expectations; industry competition intensifies.
