维持“增持”评级。2024Q1-Q3营收41.40亿元（-35.1%），归母净利润7.10 亿元（-67.86%）；Q3 单季度营收14.43 亿元（-18.09%），归母净利润2.11 亿元（-59.68%），业绩符合预期。考虑汇兑损失，新兴业务国内市场竞争影响等，下调2024-2026 年EPS 预测为2.73/3.47/4.25 元，（原2.94/3.59/4.50 元）。参考可比公司估值，给予2025 年PE28X，上调目标价至97.16 元（原80.00 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
Excluding the steady increase in large orders, the month-on-month improvement in gross margin, the increase in peptide capacity and global construction, we are optimistic about long-term growth space.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. 2024Q1-Q3 revenue of 4.14 billion yuan (-35.1%), net profit of 0.71 billion yuan (-67.86%); Q3 single quarter revenue of 1.443 billion yuan (-18.09%), net profit of 0.211 billion yuan (-59.68%), in line with expectations. Taking into account exchange losses, the impact of competition in the domestic market for emerging businesses, etc., the 2024-2026 EPS forecast was lowered to 2.73/3.47/4.25 yuan (originally 2.94/3.59/4.50 yuan). Referring to comparable company valuations, the 2025 PE28X was given, and the target price was raised to 97.16 yuan (originally 80.00 yuan) to maintain the “gain” rating.
Excluding the steady increase in large orders, gross margin increased month-on-month in Q3. 2024Q1-Q3's revenue increased 4.48% year over year after excluding the impact of large orders, and increased 12.23% year over year after excluding the impact of large orders in the Q3 single quarter. The small molecule CDMO business increased 7.71% year over year after excluding large orders in Q3 in a single quarter. Emerging businesses were affected by a slow recovery in biomedical financing, with revenue of 0.745 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.37%. The overall gross profit margin of 2024Q1-Q3 was 43.60%. Excluding the impact of large orders, the gross profit margin decreased by 1.09 pct year on year. The gross profit margin in Q3 was 46.32%, and the increase of 5.64 pct compared to Q2 was mainly due to the continuous cost reduction and efficiency of the small molecule business, an increase in post-clinical and commercial projects, and an increase in capacity utilization. The gross profit margin of emerging businesses was 19.97%, a year-on-year decrease of 12.99 pcts. It is mainly affected by factors such as the continued slump in the domestic market and the fact that some businesses are still climbing capacity. Profitability is expected to improve as project delivery increases and overseas customers expand.
The growth rate of new orders has been steady, and overseas layout and peptide capacity building have been strengthened. The company continued to step up its business development efforts. New 2024H1 orders increased by more than 20% year on year. The second quarter increased significantly compared to the first quarter. The growth rate of customer orders from European and American markets exceeded the company's overall order growth rate. As of 2024H1, on-hand orders were $0.97 billion, ensuring steady growth in performance.
In terms of overseas layout, as of 2024Q3, SandwichSite, Europe's first R&D and pilot site, has been put into operation, and has begun accepting orders to improve the global supply chain system. Continuing to promote peptide production capacity, the solid-phase peptide synthesis production capacity exceeds 20,000 L, obtained mid- and late-stage peptide clinical projects from several multinational pharmaceutical companies, and signed commercial orders for GLP-1 peptides with important domestic customers to ensure long-term growth.
Catalysts: Order progress exceeded expectations, new business expanded rapidly, and investment and financing data improved.
Risk warning: Industry competition increases risk, geopolitical risk, and order fluctuation risk.
