公司Q3 单季度实现毛利率30.27%、净利率0.69%，分别同比-2.92 和-3.61pct，整体降幅较上半年有所收窄，年内公司毛利率下降主要系机器人行业竞争有所加剧，公司正积极加大新产品的开发，增强产品差异化竞争力，以及通过优化供应链、提升原材料国产替代、实施制造精益管理等降本增效措施，未来毛利率水平有望逐步改善。费用端24Q3 公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别同比-0.47/+0.2/-2.35/+1.36pct，财务费用率提升主要系利息增加以及汇兑损失，而销售和管理费用率提升幅度较上半年有所收窄，研发费用率得到较好管控，随着公司降本增效工作的持续推进，未来人效提升和费用率的下降值得期待。Eston released its three-quarter report: Q3 achieved revenue of 1.198 billion yuan (yoy +21.66%, qoq +2.72%) and net profit of 6.7162 million yuan (yoy -84.33%, qoq +108.40%). Q1-Q3 2024 achieved revenue of 3.367 billion yuan (yoy +4.38%), net profit to mother of -66.6998 million yuan (yoy -147.55%), after deducting non-net profit of -0.108 billion yuan (yoy -222.85%). The overall decline in net interest rates has narrowed, and the improvement in human efficiency is showing initial results. Considering the company's leading position in the industrial robot industry, we expect the next two years to grow faster and maintain a “buy” rating.
The robot boom picked up in 24Q3, and the company's revenue accelerated again. Domestic PMI was 49.4, 49.1, and 49.8 respectively from July to September. The company's Q3 revenue achieved contrarian growth. It is speculated that the robot business revenue growth rate increased. According to the Bureau of Statistics, sales of industrial robots in China from July to September were +19.7%, +20%, and +22.8%, respectively, which is somewhat faster than in Q2. As the base effect of photovoltaic robots gradually weakens and the company's market share continues to rise, the company's revenue is expected to return to a relatively rapid growth channel in the future.
The decline in profitability has narrowed, and future improvements in human efficiency are worth looking forward to
The company achieved a gross profit margin of 30.27% and a net profit margin of 0.69% in a single quarter, respectively. The overall decline was narrower than in the first half of the year. The decline in the company's gross margin during the year was mainly due to increased competition in the robotics industry. The company is actively increasing the development of new products, enhancing product differentiation competitiveness, and cost reduction and efficiency measures such as optimizing the supply chain, improving domestic substitution of raw materials, and implementing lean manufacturing management. The gross margin level is expected to gradually improve in the future. On the cost side, 24Q3's sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were -0.47/+0.2/-2.35/+1.36pct year on year, respectively. The increase in the financial expense ratio was mainly due to increased interest and exchange losses. The increase in sales and management expenses was narrower compared to the first half of the year, and the R&D expenses rate was better controlled. As the company's work to reduce costs and increase efficiency continues, it is worth looking forward to future improvements in labor efficiency and a decrease in cost rates.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Maintaining the previous profit forecast, the company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 0.02 billion yuan, 1.88, and 443 million yuan, respectively. Considering that the industrial robot industry was still in the early stages of profit recovery in '25, referring to Comparable's PE valuation in '26, Comparable's Wind agreed to expect 62 times PE in '26, giving the company 62 times PE in '26, with a target price of 31.6 yuan (previous value of 15.4 yuan), maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: 1) The recovery of the economic cycle falls short of expectations; 2) industry competition continues to intensify; 3) The increase in the penetration rate of intelligent welding falls short of expectations.
