Q3 大B 份额企稳，小B 端增加市场费用支持后预计实现同比增长。大B 渠道三季度预计有个位数下滑，其中让利大型连锁客户因素更多（成本端不断精进、将优化得到的部分投入到客户端，因此大B毛利率表现平稳），目前来看终端品牌价格竞争趋势减缓，头部企业更注重品牌建设和上新质量，公司目前积极推新，为明年餐饮端恢复打下基础。今年以来公司不断拓展大B 客户，尤其在中腰部川渝火锅赛道增量显著，并计划将烘焙产品推入盒马、叮咚、奥乐齐等新零售平台。小B 经销渠道三季度预计实现同增，渠道战略转变后费用投入增多，帮助经销商开拓下游，宴席、农贸渠道表现较弱，终端型经销商在公司扶助下稳定增长。occurrences
The company achieved total revenue of 13.64/1.364/0.082/0.081 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year ratio of 2.7%/2.7%/-13.49%/-1.25%. The company achieved total revenue/operating revenue/net profit attributable to mothers/net profit after deducting non-net profit of 4.72/0.472/0.022/0.023 billion yuan in Q3, -1.17%/-42.08%/-23.54% year-on-year.
Core points
In Q3, the share of Big B stabilized, and the small B side is expected to achieve year-on-year growth after increasing market fee support. The Big B channel is expected to decline by a single digit in the third quarter. Among them, there are more factors that benefit large chain customers (the cost side continues to refine, and the optimized portion is invested in the client, so Big B's gross margin performance is stable). Currently, the price competition trend of terminal brands is slowing down, and leading companies are paying more attention to brand building and improving new quality. The company is currently actively promoting innovation, laying the foundation for next year's restaurant side recovery. Since this year, the company has continued to expand Big B customers, especially at the mid-waist Sichuan-Chongqing Hot Pot Circuit, and plans to launch bakery products into new retail platforms such as Hema, Dingdong, and Allezi. The small B distribution channel is expected to achieve the same increase in the third quarter. Expenses will increase after the channel strategy change to help dealers develop downstream. The performance of banquet and farmers' trade channels is weak, and terminal dealers are growing steadily with the support of the company.
Q3 Gross margin was basically flat year over year, and net profit margin declined due to increased cost investment. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's gross margin/net profit margin was 24.25%/5.98%, 1.31/-1.12pct, respectively; the sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were 5.31%/9.33%/1.21%/-0.13%, respectively, compared to 0.72/1.1/0.2/-0.41pct, respectively. In 24Q3, the company's gross margin/net profit margin was 22.44%/4.71%, 0.04/-3.33pct, respectively; sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were 4.89%/9.26%/1.28%/-0.07%, respectively, and 0.81/1.19/0.15/-0.41pct, respectively. The increase in market expenses in the third quarter was compounded by non-recurrent revenue such as government subsidies in the same period last year, which led to a certain decline in net interest rates in the single quarter. Since the fourth quarter is the peak sales season before the holiday season, and it is necessary to lay the foundation for next year, the trend of spending will continue, and we will wait for a better performance next year after downstream pressure is released this year.
Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings
We adjusted our profit forecast for the next three years. Revenue for 2024-2026 is 1.994/2.252/2.517 billion yuan, respectively (the original forecast was 2.059/2.426/2.792 billion yuan), up 4.91%/12.92%/11.76% year over year. The estimated net profit for 2024-2026 is 0.114/0.134/0.156 billion yuan (the original forecast was 0.145/0.172/0.2 billion yuan), or -15.25%/+17.46%/+16.66% year-on-year. EPS for the next three years will be 1.15/1.35/1.57 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE being 26/22/19 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning:
Food safety risks; increased risk of market competition; risk of fluctuations in raw material prices.
