Source: Securities Times.
Author: Zhang Da
At the end of September, how effective is the combination of measures to stabilize the real estate market? The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (referred to as the "Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development") has released the latest data.
On November 1st, according to the Securities Times reporter, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced that in October, the transaction volume of commercial housing increased both year-on-year and month-on-month. The national total transaction volume of new and second-hand houses increased by 5.8% compared to the previous month, exceeding "golden September" for the first time since 2007; a 3.9% year-on-year increase, marking the first year-on-year growth after 8 consecutive months of decline since February this year.
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development stated that in October, the national real estate market showed a positive trend of stabilization after the decline, and it is believed that with the continuous release of policy effects, the real estate market is expected to continue to maintain a positive momentum.
Double-digit growth in transaction volume of commercial housing in October compared to the previous month.
On November 1st, the Securities Times reporter learned from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development that in October, the transaction volume of commercial housing achieved double-digit growth both year-on-year and month-on-month. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's "National Real Estate Market Monitoring System" signing data reveals three major changes in the property market post the new policies.
Firstly, a turning point in the continuous decline of the year-on-year sales area of commercial housing has emerged. Market trends can be analyzed from year-on-year data. In October, the national new commercial housing signing transaction volume increased by 0.9% year-on-year, expanding by 12.5 percentage points compared to September, achieving growth for the first time after 15 consecutive months of decline since June last year; the national second-hand housing signing transaction volume increased by 8.9% year-on-year, growing for 7 consecutive months; the total transaction volume of new and second-hand houses increased by 3.9% year-on-year, marking growth for the first time after 8 consecutive months of decline since February this year.
Another is that the sales area of commercial housing in October surpassed the traditional peak season in September. The real estate market has always had the saying of "Gold September and Silver October", describing the peak sales season in the second half of the year. Market changes can be seen from the month-on-month data. In October, the national new commercial housing signed volume increased by 6.7% month-on-month; the second-hand housing signed volume increased by 4.5% month-on-month; the total volume of signed new commercial housing and second-hand housing increased by 5.8% month-on-month.
Secondly, officials from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development stated that September is the end of the third quarter, and real estate companies will push for sales performance. October is the first month of the fourth quarter, and generally, it will be affected by the overdraft of September, making this year's October standout from September, which is very rare. It is the first time since 2007 that October exceeds September in terms of sales performance.
The third point is that the growth in transaction volume is expanding from first-tier cities to more cities. Changes can be seen from regional data. Looking at different cities, many cities have shown varying degrees of growth in the signed transaction volume of commercial housing. First-tier cities have a more significant growth, with the signed transaction volume of new commercial housing increasing by 14.1% year-on-year, and the signed transaction volume of second-hand housing increasing by 47.3% year-on-year. Cities like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Ningbo, Dalian, Dongguan, etc., have seen a year-on-year growth rate of over 30% in new house transactions, while cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, etc., have experienced a year-on-year growth of over 50% in second-hand house transactions.
From a regional perspective, 11 provinces have seen a year-on-year increase in the signed transaction volume of new commercial housing, with an addition of 6 provinces compared to the previous month. Among them, Hunan, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Jiangsu saw a year-on-year growth rate of over 10%. In 20 provinces, the signed transaction volume of second-hand houses increased year-on-year, with 2 more provinces added compared to the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Hebei, Liaoning, Zhejiang, Hunan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Gansu, Shaanxi, Ningxia experienced a year-on-year growth rate of over 10%.
The real estate market is expected to continue to maintain a positive trend.
The Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26 emphasized promoting the stabilization of the real estate market. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, together with relevant departments, has implemented a set of measures, promptly implemented existing policies, accelerated the introduction of new policies, organized activities such as "promotions in a hundred cities and for a thousand enterprises" and "convenient property viewing", effectively boosting market confidence, leading to positive changes in the real estate market.
Officials from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development stated that based on the data from October, under the combined effect of existing and new policies, the national real estate market is showing a positive trend of stabilization. "We believe that with the continuous release of policy effects, the real estate market is expected to continue to maintain a positive trend."
Yan Yuejin, Deputy Director of Shanghai E-House Enterprise Holdings Real Estate Research Institute, believes that the disclosure of multiple data by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development indicates a good trend of the real estate market bottoming out and stabilizing. The overall indicator judgment shows a turning point in year-on-year growth rates. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of new house transactions turned positive for the first time, second-hand house transactions have been continuously growing year-on-year for 7 months, and both new house and second-hand house transactions have seen year-on-year positive growth for the first time. Such data indicates a continuous positive development in market transactions, with fundamental changes and positive policy effects being released.
"The data for October belongs to the first month of stabilizing after the decline, releasing a very good signal significance," said Yan Yuejin. This warming trend is also comprehensive, including all types of cities, new and second-hand houses, urban and suburban areas, rigid demand and improvement-oriented ones, all showing a very good warming trend. At the same time, it is sustainable and helpful to further promote the positive development of the real estate market.
Chen Wenjing, Director of Policy Research at the China Index Research Institute, also believes that overall, since the end of September, the real estate 'package' policies have led to positive changes in market sales. It is expected that the stabilizing trend in sales in core cities in the short term will continue. In the future, if the monetization of 1 million sets of urban villages and old houses for renovation, as well as the policies on acquiring existing housing and idle land can be implemented, it will help accelerate the improvement of market supply and demand relations, ultimately achieving the 'stabilizing after the decline' of the real estate market.
Editor/Rocky
