毛利同比略有提升，费用投放压制盈利。24Q1-3/24Q3 公司毛利率分别为36.20%/37.54%，同比-1.60/+0.67pcts，Q3 毛利率同比有所提升预计主因部分原料价格有所回落。费用方面，24Q3 销售费用率为14.93%，同比+2.98pcts，预计主因收入规模下滑影响费效比，同时行业竞争激励相关市场人员费用亦有增加；24Q3 管理/ 研发/ 财务费用率分别为3.86%/2.77%/-1.18%， 同比-0.65/+0.29/-0.14pcts。24Q3 实现归母净利率14.45%，同比-1.86pcts；实现扣非净利率14.35%，同比-1.94pcts。Incident: The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 2.288 billion yuan, -1.85%; realized net profit to mother of 0.352 billion yuan, -9.19% year-on-year; and realized deducted non-net profit of 0.347 billion yuan, or -10.25% year-on-year. Looking at a single quarter, 24Q3 achieved operating income of 0.699 billion yuan, -12.63%; realized net profit to mother of 0.101 billion yuan, or -22.58% YoY; and realized deducted non-net profit of 0.1 billion yuan, or -23.04% YoY.
Active control of goods and channel adjustments continued to put pressure on Q3 operations. By product, 24Q3 soy sauce/table vinegar achieved revenue of 0.435/0.085 billion yuan, or -13.82%/-15.67% year over year. The year-on-year decline in soy sauce and vinegar is expected to be mainly due to the company's active control of goods and the phased increase in industry competition. Furthermore, the high base for the same period last year still had a certain impact. By channel, 24Q3 distribution/direct sales achieved revenue of 0.468/0.218 billion yuan respectively, -17.32%/-0.43% YoY.
In the subregion, 24Q3 East/ South/ Central/ North/ West achieved revenue of 1.65/0.56/0.092/0.11/0.263 billion yuan, or -8.42%/-0.03%/-21.10%/-17.68%/-11.92% year-on-year. The company focuses on improving and optimizing dealer quality. As of the end of 24Q3, the number of the company's dealers was 3,424, a net decrease of 136 over the previous month, including -8/+9/-35/-5/-97 in the East/South/Central/North/West divisions.
There was a slight increase in gross profit over the same period last year, and cost investment suppressed profits. The gross margin of the 24Q1-3/24Q3 company was 36.20%/37.54%, respectively, -1.60/+0.67pcts year-on-year. The Q3 gross margin increased year-on-year and is expected to decline mainly due to a decrease in the prices of some raw materials. In terms of expenses, the 24Q3 sales expense ratio was 14.93%, +2.98 pcts. It is expected that the cost efficiency ratio will be affected mainly due to the decline in revenue scale, while market personnel expenses related to industry competition incentives will also increase; the 24Q3 management/ R&D/financial expenses ratio is 3.86%/2.77%/-1.18%, respectively, -0.65/+0.29/-0.14 pcts year over year. 24Q3 achieved a net interest rate of 14.45% to mother, -1.86pcts year on year; realized deducted non-net interest rate of 14.35%, or 1.94 pcts year over year.
Investment suggestions: In the short term, due to increased phased market competition and weak demand, etc., the company's operations were under pressure, but since Q2, the company continued to adjust and respond proactively. The product side stuck to the product quality moat, thoroughly sorted out the product system, accurately matched the product and marketing scenarios, and promoted in a timely manner; the channel side continued to strengthen marketing network construction, strengthen dealer empowerment, and accurate resource allocation, and look forward to the effects of subsequent adjustments. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 3.24/3.61/4.05 billion yuan, +1.1%/+11.3%/+12.2%, and net profit to mother of 0.5/0.56/0.63 billion yuan, respectively, -5.3%/+11.8%/+11.5%. The PE corresponding to the current market value is 25/23/20X, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies, channel expansion falls short of expectations, large fluctuations in raw material prices, food safety issues, etc.
