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皓元医药(688131):符合预期 前端业务海外拓展提速

Haoyuan Pharmaceutical (688131): In line with expectations, the overseas expansion of front-end business is accelerated

everbright ·  Nov 1

Incident: The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2024, it achieved revenue of 1.619 billion yuan (+17.65% YOY), net profit of 0.143 billion yuan (+21.31% YOY), and net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 0.13 billion yuan (+21.04% YOY), which is in line with market expectations.

The Q3 results were in line with expectations. In 24Q3, the company achieved revenue of 0.564 billion yuan (+13.80% YOY), net profit of 0.073 billion yuan (+212.93% YOY), and deducted non-net profit of 0.063 billion yuan (+194.47% YOY), in line with market expectations. In 24Q3, the company's gross profit margin was 51.71% (+6.49pp YOY), and the net profit margin to mother was 12.94% (+8.23pp YOY). The increase in net margin mainly benefited from sales volume of instrument compounds with high gross margins.

The front-end business achieved high growth and accelerated overseas expansion. 24H1, in the company's front-end business, revenue from molecular blocks was 0.208 billion yuan (+46.0% YOY), and revenue from tool compounds and biochemical reagents was 0.492 billion yuan (+25.2% YOY).

In terms of gross margin, the overall gross margin of 24H1's front-end business was 59.54% (58.24% for the full year of '23), which is an improvement. As of 24H1, the company has accumulated reserves of more than 0.126 million life science reagents, and research customers using the company's products have published more than 42,000 academic articles. In the medium term, product innovation and upgrading, brand strength improvement, and the improvement of overseas logistics and warehousing systems (most regions of the US have achieved same-day orders and next-day delivery) are conducive to speeding up the international development of the company's front-end business.

Back-end business orders are growing steadily, strengthening the XDC field's advantage. 24H1, the company's back-end business revenue was 0.352 billion yuan (+3.37% YOY), and gross margin was 17.39% (25.68% for the full year of '23). In terms of on-hand orders, as of 24H1, the number of active back-end projects in the company's back-end business was +20% year-on-year. Aiming at the CDMO business, the company strengthened its advantages in the XDC segment. The specific layout includes speeding up the construction of the fifth production line in Maanshan and the Chongqing Haoyuan Antibody-Coupling CDMO base, with the aim of providing one-stop CDMO solutions for ADC drugs to customers around the world. As of 24H1, the company has completed the US FDA·Sec-DMF filing for 12 small molecule products related to ADC drugs, has undertaken coupling customization services for more than 150 ADC molecules, and has completed testing of more than 60 ADC drugs.

Profit forecast, valuation and rating: Considering asset impairment losses and the impact of sluggish downstream biomedical investment and financing, we lowered the company's 24-25 net profit to mother of 0.172/0.252 billion yuan (down 54%/54% from the original forecast, respectively), and the additional forecast net profit to mother for 26 years was 0.399 billion yuan. According to the latest share capital estimate, EPS was 0.82/1.20/1.89 yuan, respectively. The current price corresponds to PE 45/31/19 times, respectively; considering the company's continued month-on-month performance in a single quarter Improve and strengthen overseas market expansion to seek breakthroughs and maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: New product development faces the risk of uncertainty; risk of brain loss; risk of exchange rate changes.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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