维持“增持” 评级，上调目标价至 53.83 元。我们根据最新业绩情况，维持上次的盈利预测，预计2024-2026 年公司净利润分别为0.89/1.16/1.46 亿元，EPS 分别为0.78、1.02、1.28 元，根据可比公司平均估值水平，我们给予公司2025 年53 倍PE，目标价上调至53.83 元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's overall performance is in line with market expectations. The margin of gross margin improved in the first three quarters, and cost-side investment increased. As the company leads anti-quantum cryptography technology and applications, establishing a pioneering position in the industry, it is expected to exceed expectations.
Key points of investment:
Maintaining the “Overweight” rating, the target price was raised to $53.83. Based on the latest performance situation, we maintain our previous profit forecast. We expect the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 0.089/0.116/0.146 billion yuan, and EPS 0.78, 1.02, and 1.28 yuan respectively. Based on the average valuation level of comparable companies, we gave the company 53 times PE in 2025, and raised the target price to 53.83 yuan, maintaining the “increase” rating.
Revenue increased slightly in the first three quarters, putting pressure on the profit side in the short term. The company achieved operating income of 0.254 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, up 7.81% year on year, and realized net profit of 0.014 billion yuan, down 64.33% year on year; the company's revenue in the single quarter was 0.085 billion yuan, down 35.66% year on year, and net profit to mother was 0.45 million yuan. Due to the small profit base in 2023Q3, down 98.47% year on year; mainly due to macroeconomic and other factors, the progress of some of the company's projects fell short of expectations. The inspection process was delayed to varying degrees, leading to a decline in the company's 2024Q3 revenue, and revenue growth in the first three quarters fell short of expectations.
The margin of gross margin is improving, and cost-side investment is increasing. The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 75.64% (YOY+3.0pct); the company spent 31.89% on R&D expenses in the first three quarters (YOY+2.4pct). Expense-side companies invested heavily in R&D and sales management. In the first three quarters, the company's sales expense ratio reached 34.41% (YOY +12.3pct), the management expense ratio was 13.31% (YOY +2.4pct), and the R&D expense ratio was 31.89% (YOY+2.4pct).
Leading anti-quantum cryptography technology and applications, establishing a pioneering position in the industry. With the rise of quantum computing, traditional cryptography is facing unprecedented challenges. Sanwei Xin'an published the “White Paper on Anti-quantum Cryptography Technology and Applications (2024)” to thoroughly study anti-quantum cryptography technology, explore its application practices in various fields, focus on the challenges faced by anti-quantum cryptographic migration, clarify migration strategies and migration paths, and accurately demonstrate the application and practice of anti-quantum cryptography technology through typical cases and solutions such as commercial banks, securities companies, mobile operators, and the power industry, to provide commercial secret systems with application scenarios and implementation methods of quantum cryptography technology and products in different industries. As a pioneer in an emerging industry, the company is expected to become a future industry leader and rule-maker.
Risk warning: risk of failure in new product development, risk of increased market competition
