相比于土方机械，混凝土机械、起重机的内需仍然处于磨底过程中。展望后续，10 月12 日，财政部表示将叠加运用地方政府专项债券、专项资金、税收政策等工具，支持推动房地产市场止跌回稳。政策支撑下，国内工程机械需求的预期有望随之加速改善，现阶段以起重机、混凝土机械为代表的后周期工程机械产品内需筑底速度有望加快。Incident: The company released its three-quarter report for 2024. In the first three quarters of 24, the company achieved revenue of 58.36 billion, +3.92% year over year; net profit to mother was 48.68%, +19.66% year over year. Q3 alone achieved revenue of 19.3 billion, +18.87% YoY, -9.09%; net profit to mother of 1.295 billion, +96.49% YoY, -35% month-on-month, net profit of 1.502 billion (YoY), +310% YoY.
The global strategy achieved remarkable results, achieving year-on-year increases in revenue and profit. The gross sales margin and net profit margin of the single Q3 company reached 28.32% and 6.95% respectively, -0.51 and +3.01 pcts year-on-year, respectively. Domestic demand is still weak, which has dragged down the company's overall revenue and gross profit improvement, but the company's share of overseas market revenue further increased from 59% at the end of 23 to 60.8%, effectively smoothing the downward cycle of domestic demand. As of 24Q3, the company's sales, management, finance, and R&D expenses rates reached 8.03%, 3.40%, 0.48%, and 6.60%, respectively, year-on-year, -0.09, -0.07, +1.38, and -0.97 pcts, respectively. Apart from the increase in financial expenses due to the impact of exchange, the remaining cost rate levels have declined steadily, and the cost control process has been good.
Domestic excavator heads fully benefit from the comparative advantages of earthmoving machinery. By product, 24H1's excavator, concrete machinery, and crane segments achieved revenue of 15.22, 7.96, and 6.62 billion yuan respectively, +0.4%, -5.2%, and -10.1% year-on-year respectively. The domestic market has been the top sales champion for 13 consecutive years.
Compared to earthmoving machinery, domestic demand for concrete machinery and cranes is still in the process of grinding. Looking ahead, on October 12, the Ministry of Finance stated that it will use a combination of tools such as local government special bonds, special funds, and tax policies to support the stabilization of the real estate market. With policy support, expectations for domestic construction machinery demand are expected to improve at an accelerated pace, and domestic demand for post-cycle construction machinery products represented by cranes and concrete machinery is expected to bottom up at this stage.
Investment advice: As a leading enterprise in the construction machinery industry, the company has leading internationalization, electrification, etc., with obvious advantages in products, channels, and services. The excavator position is stable and competitive. Subsequently, as domestic industry demand bottomed out and the industry renewal cycle gradually arrived, overseas markets continued to maintain structured growth, and the company's revenue and performance are expected to accelerate upward. The company is expected to achieve net profit of 6.3, 8.2, and 10.4 billion yuan in 2024-2026, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 25/19/15 times, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of increased trade friction, risk of exchange rate fluctuations, risk of overseas market demand falling short of expectations, fluctuating raw material prices, etc.
