2024Q1-Q3 公司营收同比增速较2024H1 小幅+0.18pct，主要系公司利息收入与中收表现均边际改善。2024Q1-Q3 公司利息净收入、中收分别同比-3.07%、-16.90%，增速较2024H1 +1.10pct、+1.71pct。2024Q1-Q3 公司归母净利润增速较2024H1+0.71pct，主要系息差业务、中收以及费用管控贡献。从业绩归因来看，2024Q1-Q3 生息资产规模、净息差、中收、成本费用对净利润的贡献度分别为+9.24%、-12.31%、-4.04%、+0.29%，较2024H1 分别+0.85pct、+0.24pct、+0.32pct、+1.69pct。Key points of investment
China Merchants Bank released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 252.709 billion yuan, or -2.91% over the same period last year. Achieved net profit of 113.184 billion yuan to mother, -0.62% YoY.
Performance is steady, moderate and positive, and the contribution to the interest spread business has increased
The year-on-year revenue growth rate of 2024Q1-Q3 was slightly +0.18pct compared to 2024H1, mainly due to marginal improvements in the company's interest income and revenue performance. 2024Q1-Q3's net interest income and revenue were -3.07% and -16.90%, respectively, and the growth rate was +1.10pct and +1.71pct compared to 2024H1. 2024Q1-Q3's net profit growth rate compared to 2024H1+0.71pct, mainly due to interest spread business, revenue collection, and expense control contributions. In terms of performance attribution, 2024Q1-Q3 contributed +9.24%, -12.31%, -4.04%, and +0.29% to net profit, respectively, compared to 2024H1, +0.85pct, +0.24pct, +0.32pct, and +1.69pct, respectively.
The retail business has significant advantages, and interest spreads have shown strong resilience
As of the end of 2024Q3, the company's loan balance was 6.76 trillion yuan, +4.70% year-on-year, and the growth rate was -1.48pct compared to 2024H1. Looking at new loans, the company's loans increased net by 10.947 billion yuan in a single quarter in 2024Q3, of which retail loans increased net by 32.679 billion yuan, highlighting the advantages of retail business. According to the Bank's caliber, as of the end of 2024Q3, the company's small micro and consumer loan balances were +10.63% and +31.28%, respectively. In terms of net interest spread, 2024Q1-Q3's cumulative net interest spread was 1.99%, compared to 2024H1 -1bp, mainly due to asset-side drag. The average loan yield and average deposit cost ratio of 2024Q1-Q3 company were 3.98% and 1.58%, respectively. Compared with 2024H1, -4 bps and -2bp, respectively.
2024Q3's net interest spread for the single quarter was 1.97%, -2bp month-on-month. The decline in interest spreads narrowed and the performance was superior to that of its peers.
The decline in wealth management revenue narrowed, and the consignment wealth management business performed well. In 2024Q1-Q3, the company's wealth management fee and commission revenue was 17.405 billion yuan, -27.63% year-on-year, and the growth rate was +4.88pct compared to 2024H1. Among them, escrow wealth management revenue was 5.937 billion yuan, +47.36% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2024H1+6.97pct. The performance of consignment wealth management revenue was impressive, mainly driven by two factors: growth in the scale of consignment sales and optimization of the product structure. In terms of customer base, by the end of 2024Q3, the company's retail AUM reached 14.34 trillion yuan, +7.69% compared to the beginning of the period, and the average AUM of retail customers was 0.0696 million yuan, +2.98% compared to the 2023 level.
Bad generation pressure is stable, and the quality of credit card assets has improved
From a static perspective, the company's defect rate, attention rate, and overdue rate at the end of 2024Q3 were 0.94%, 1.30%, and 1.36%, respectively. Compared with the end of 2024H1, +0bps, +6bp, respectively, the attention rate for retail loans such as consumer loans, mortgages, and small and micro loans increased. In terms of dynamics, the overall defect generation rate of 2024Q1-Q3 companies was 1.02%, the same as 2024H1.
Among them, the bad generation rates for public, credit card, and non-credit card retail loans were 0.43%, 4.26%, and 0.57%, respectively. Compared with 2024H1, -3 bps, -6 bps, and +5 bps, respectively, there is a marginal improvement in credit card asset quality. We expect the pressure mainly comes from small and micro sectors. At the end of 2024Q3, the company's provision coverage rate was 432.15%, and the risk compensation capacity was sufficient.
Investment advice: maintaining China Merchants Bank's “buy” rating
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 333.4/346.4/366.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.68%/+3.90%/+5.73%, and 3-year CAGR of 2.60%; net profit to mother will be 146.8/151.1/159.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +0.10%/+2.97%/+5.56%, and 3-year CAGR of 2.86%. Given the company's significant retail advantage, we maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Steady growth falls short of expectations, deteriorating asset quality, and regulatory policy shifts.
