2024 年单三季度，公司收入为8.23 亿元，同比增长0.04%。根据公司披露：1-3Q24，公司口腔医疗门诊量为264.8 万人次，省内门诊人次为228.9 万人次，同比增4.5%；省外门诊人次为35.9 万人次，同比增21.7%。在医疗服务收入方面，1-3Q24 总医院收入同比下降12.0%。区域分院医疗服务收入占比达到了80.6%，同比增长3%。浙江省内总体医疗服务营收为18.86 亿元，同比持平。1-3Q24 公司毛利率28.06%，同比下降1.47ppt。3Q24 results are in line with our expectations
The company announced 3Q24 results: revenue of 0.823 billion yuan, up 0.04% year on year; net profit to mother of 0.188 billion yuan (corresponding profit of 0.42 yuan per share), down 9.10% year on year. After deducting non-net profit, it was 0.189 billion yuan, down 7.37% year on year, in line with our expectations.
Development trends
In the third quarter of 2024, the company's revenue was 0.823 billion yuan, up 0.04% year-on-year. According to the company's disclosure: 1-3Q24, the number of dental clinics in the company was 2.648 million; the number of outpatients in the province was 2.289 million, up 4.5% year on year; the number of outpatients outside the province was 0.359 million, up 21.7% year on year. In terms of health service revenue, 1-3Q24 General Hospital revenue declined 12.0% year over year. Regional branch medical services accounted for 80.6% of revenue, an increase of 3% over the previous year. Overall health service revenue in Zhejiang Province was 1.886 billion yuan, the same as the previous year. 1-3Q24's gross profit margin was 28.06%, down 1.47ppt year over year.
The implant was successfully placed. According to the company's disclosure, 1-3Q24 implant revenue was 0.384 billion yuan, +11.7% year on year, 0.048 million implants, +30%; orthodontics 0.395 billion yuan, down year on year; pediatric 0.386 billion yuan, a slight decrease year on year; repair 0.331 billion yuan, flat year on year; combined 0.593 billion yuan, +1.1% year over year.
Dandelions are growing smoothly, and major hospitals are expected to gradually put them into use. According to the company's disclosure, 1-3Q24 Dandelion Hospital's revenue was 0.523 billion yuan (+19% YoY), gross profit margin 21%, net profit margin 12.9%, and 0.708 million outpatient visits, +26% YoY. In addition, the company plans to open 8 new dandelion hospitals in 2024, and 3 have been delivered by the third quarter. The company expects the remaining 5 to be delivered as soon as possible before the end of the year. We expect the company's dandelion hospitals to gradually contribute revenue and profits. For major hospitals: Zijingang Hospital plans to deliver as soon as the end of this year. We expect the number of dental chairs in the company to continue to expand.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We keep the 2024/2025 EPS forecast unchanged at 1.17 yuan/1.23 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 41.1 times the price-earnings ratio in 2025. We maintain the company's outperforming industry rating. Based on the DCF model, we maintain a target price of 58.3 yuan, which corresponds to a price-earnings ratio of 47.5 times in 2025, and has 15.4% upside compared to the current stock price.
risks
Expansion fell short of expectations; in-vitro hospital operations or mergers fell short of expectations; core doctors' incentives fell short of expectations.
