维持盈利预测 ，上调目标价，维持增持评级。公司公告2024年三季报， 业绩符合预期。我们维持2024-2026 年归母净利润为0.73/1.46/1.93 亿元，对应EPS 为0.290.590.78 元。考虑行业平均估值，给予公司2025 年129.68x PE，上调目标价至76.51 元，维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
Maintain profit forecasts, raise target prices, and maintain shareholding ratings; performance is in line with expectations, revenue growth is rapid; the equity incentive plan was approved, and Guangdong issued an optical chip industry plan to accelerate the development of lithium niobate.
Key points of investment:
Maintain profit forecasts, raise target prices, and maintain holdings growth ratings. The company announced its 2024 three-quarter report, and the results were in line with expectations. We maintain a net profit of 0.073/0.146/0.193 billion yuan for 2024-2026, and a corresponding EPS of 0.29\ 0.59\ 0.78 yuan. Considering the industry average valuation, the company was given 129.68x PE in 2025, raised the target price to 76.51 yuan, and maintained an increase in holdings rating.
The performance was in line with expectations, and revenue grew rapidly. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 0.738 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41%; net profit to mother was 0.056 billion yuan, an increase of 19.53% over the previous year.
The company's revenue per quarter reached 0.318 billion yuan, with a month-on-month growth rate of 21.6%, which is a relatively rapid increase. We believe that 1) the lidar light source business achieved rapid growth after the company held Bayan, and 2) optical communication devices continued the Q2 boom trend. In terms of profitability, the company's gross margin reached 36.83% in a single quarter, up 1.3 percentage points from month to month, achieving a steady increase.
The equity incentive plan was approved, and Guangdong issued an optical chip industry plan to accelerate the development of lithium niobate.
The company issued a restricted stock incentive plan in June 2024, and was recently approved by the Zhuhai State-owned Assets Administration Commission in September 2024. According to the plan, profit is expected to reach about 0.06/0.1 billion in 2024-2025, while the revenue growth rate needs to reach 26.78%/22.22%, respectively. Furthermore, in October 2024, the Guangdong Provincial People's Government launched the “Guangdong Province Action Plan to Accelerate the Innovation and Development of the Optical Chip Industry (2024-2030)”, which will support enterprises, universities, research institutes, etc. to build concept verification centers, R&D pilot lines, and pilot test lines in the fields of high-speed optical communication chips, high-performance optical sensors, infrared light sensing chips, high-performance synesthetic fusion chips, thin-film lithium niobate, compound semiconductors, silicon-based (heterogeneous) integration, and optoelectronic hybrid integration.
Support the pilot platform to actively exert its effectiveness. We believe that future companies are expected to receive more support for industrial development, driving the mass application of lithium niobate materials.
Catalyst: Local governments push for policy implementation, and lithium niobate products are shipped in batches; risk alert: AI investment is slowing down, and local policies are falling short of expectations.
