利润环比改善，成本压降助力业绩提升。单三季度实现归母净利润5.45亿元，同比增长17.37%，环比增长15.79%。首先是自营投资业务同比改善，2024 年前三季度公司经纪、投行、资管、利息、自营投资业务净收入分别为8.33 亿元、3.91 亿元、11.80 亿元、3.81 亿元、11.85 亿元，同比分别下降7.52%、28.82%、0.01%、4.39%、15.94%。其中，自营投资业务受益于三季度市场环境改善，降幅较中期收窄，单三季度投资业务实现收入3.76亿元，同比增长123.23%。管理费用大幅下降助力三季度利润提升，三季度管理费用为7.58 亿元，同比下降17.94%。Description of the event
The company released its three-quarter report for 2024. The first three quarters of 2024 achieved operating income of 4.441 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.36%, and net profit to mother of 1.472 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.93%. The weighted average ROE was 4.19%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.29pct.
Incident reviews
Profit improved month-on-month, and the reduction in cost pressure helped improve performance. Net profit to mother was 0.545 billion yuan in the third quarter, up 17.37% year on year and 15.79% month on month. First, there was a year-on-year improvement in the proprietary investment business. The net revenue from the company's brokerage, investment banking, asset management, interest, and proprietary investment business in the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.833 billion yuan, 0.391 billion yuan, 1.18 billion yuan, 0.381 billion yuan, and 1.185 billion yuan, respectively, down 7.52%, 28.82%, 0.01%, 4.39%, and 15.94% year-on-year respectively. Among them, the proprietary investment business benefited from the improvement in the market environment in the third quarter. The decline was narrower than in the medium term. The investment business achieved revenue of 0.376 billion yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 123.23% over the previous year. The sharp drop in management expenses helped increase profits in the third quarter. Management expenses for the third quarter were 0.758 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.94%.
The investment style is neutral, and fair changes have increased year over year. The company's proprietary investment business adheres to non-directionality, has less directional exposure to equity, and is less affected by the market. The decline in investment business narrowed in the first three quarters, mainly due to a 37.10% year-on-year increase in net income from changes in fair value. Net investment income and net income from fair value changes in the third quarter achieved revenue of 0.338 billion yuan and 0.164 billion yuan respectively, a decrease of 8.25% and 0.54%, respectively. Net income from fair value changes improved significantly year-on-year, with an increase of 0.244 billion yuan over the same period last year.
Asset-light businesses are under pressure. 1) The net revenue of the company's securities brokerage business in the first three quarters was 0.833 billion yuan, down 7.52% year on year. The third quarter was 0.263 billion yuan, down 18.70% year on year. The average daily share base transaction volume in the third quarter was 0.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.27% year on year. The decline in proxy purchasing revenue in the first three quarters was relatively small among listed brokerage firms. 2) At the end of the third quarter, the scale of CaiTong's asset management products was 123.943 billion yuan, which is basically the same as mid-year. The first three quarters achieved asset management revenue of 1.18 billion yuan, which is basically the same as the same period last year. 3) Affected by the slowing pace of distribution in the primary market, investment banking business revenue declined. Revenue of 0.391 billion yuan was achieved in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 28.82%.
Investment advice
The company is deeply involved in Zhejiang enterprises, and the management is rich in experience. Under the new strategic cycle, the ability to acquire customers on the Internet and serve residents' wealth management and real economy is constantly improving, and the company's development is being promoted into a new cycle through market-based institutional mechanisms. The company is expected to achieve revenue of 6.1 billion yuan, 6.576 billion yuan, and 7.342 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, respectively. Net profit attributable to mother was 2.392 billion yuan, 2.652 billion yuan, and 3,012 billion yuan, up 6.20%, 10.86%, and 13.59%; PB was 1.07/1.03/1.01, respectively, maintaining a “buy-A” rating.
Risk warning
The risk of downward fluctuations in the financial market may lead to a sharp drop in the price of financial assets, a decrease in the fair value of financial assets held by the company, and at the same time, directional investment may cause losses due to fluctuations.
Business progress falls short of expected risks. Under the trend of high-quality development in the securities industry, ability to practice and quality of practice have become important influencing factors in business promotion. Facing strict industry supervision, the company's business progress may slow down, thereby affecting the company's performance.
There is a risk of major risky events. Securities companies have various risks such as liquidity risk, market risk, credit risk, operational risk, and reputation risk during the operation process. After the risk occurs, it may have a huge impact on the company's performance.
