单三季度收入端保持快速增长，毛利率和净利润率同比提升。根据公告，公司3Q24 单季度收入15.81 亿元，同比增长25.38%，环比增长22.15%；从费用率情况来看，3Q24 公司销售费用率40.18%，同比下降4.70ppt，主要由于规模效应提升；管理费用率8.96%，同比上升2.87ppt，主要由于员工人数增长等原因，研发费用率1.56%，同比下降0.86ppt。3Q24 公司归母净利润4.14 亿元，同比增长63.75%，对应净利润率26.15%，同比提升6.13ppt。1-3Q24 results are in line with our expectations
The company announced 1-3Q24 results: revenue of 4.329 billion yuan, up 26.28% year on year; net profit of 1.152 billion yuan, corresponding to profit of 1.79 yuan per share, up 47.00% year on year, after deducting non-net profit of 1.067 billion yuan, up 52.33% year on year, in line with our expectations.
Development trends
The revenue side maintained rapid growth in the third quarter of the single quarter, and gross margin and net profit margin increased year-on-year. According to the announcement, the company's 3Q24 revenue in a single quarter was 1.581 billion yuan, up 25.38% year on year, up 22.15% month on month; judging from the cost ratio situation, 3Q24's sales expense ratio was 40.18%, down 4.70ppt year on year, mainly due to increased scale effect; management expense ratio was 8.96%, up 2.87ppt year on year, mainly due to the increase in the number of employees, etc., the R&D expense ratio was 1.56%, down 0.86ppt year on year. 3Q24's net profit to mother was 0.414 billion yuan, up 63.75% year on year, corresponding to a net profit margin of 26.15%, up 6.13ppt year on year.
Gross margin increased year-on-year in the third quarter of the single quarter. The company's gross margin for the 1st to 3rd quarter was 74.13%, up 3.19ppt year on year. The gross profit margin for the third quarter was 75.15%, up 3.18ppt year on year. The main reasons were: 1) The company's effective cost control. For example, reduce raw material procurement costs through centralized procurement; 2) Implement lean projects. For example, projects such as process improvement and labor efficiency improvement have been implemented, with remarkable results; 3), integrated planning of new products. We expect the company's gross margin to remain stable in the future. Furthermore, according to the company's announcement, at present, most of the company's new products are still in the cultivation stage, and the company expects R&D investment, brand building and other related work to be carried out in a steady and orderly manner.
Operating cash flow is relatively steady. 1-3Q24 achieved a net operating cash inflow of 1.441 billion yuan, an increase of 11.93% year over year. Furthermore, as of the end of the 3Q24 period, the company's income from changes in fair value was 0.002 billion yuan, compared to -0.006 billion yuan in the same period last year. It was mainly due to unmatured financial management at the end of the period and the increase from the beginning of the year, accruing the impact of interest on financial management. 1-3Q24 transactional financial assets were 3.513 billion yuan, an increase of 1.809 billion yuan over the previous year, mainly due to an increase in purchasing and financial management in the 1st to 3rd quarter of this year.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We remain unchanged in our 2024 and 2025 earnings forecasts. The current stock price corresponds to the 2024/2025 price-earnings ratio of 27.0 times/22.2 times. Maintaining an industry rating and a target price of 70.1 yuan, corresponding to 32.2 times the price-earnings ratio of 2024 and 26.4 times the price-earnings ratio of 2025, there is 19.1% upside compared to the present.
risks
Prices of upstream raw materials have increased; market competition has intensified; product prices have decreased.
