投资建议：Q 3 扣非业绩低于预期，但有非经常性收益增厚利润，上调公司2024 年EPS 为0.48（+0.03）元，维持2025-2026 年EPS 为0.52、0.59 元，考虑公司免税业务发展潜力，给予2025 年高于行业平均的35xPE，上调目标价至18.2 元，维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
Demand has yet to recover, and the company's tax-free business is expected to increase.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: Q3 deducted non-performance below expectations, but non-recurring earnings increased profits. The company's 2024 EPS was raised to 0.48 (+0.03) yuan, and the 2025-2026 EPS was 0.52 and 0.59 yuan. Considering the company's duty-free business development potential, the target price was raised to 18.2 yuan, which was higher than the industry average, and the target price was raised to 18.2 yuan.
Performance summary: Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 8.499 billion yuan/-8.27%, net profit to mother 0.427 billion yuan/YoY -34.13%, net profit not attributable to mother 0.359 billion yuan/YoY -39.12%.
Among them, 2024Q3 revenue was 2.464 billion yuan/YoY -14.61%, net profit to mother 0.134 billion yuan/YoY +2.53%, net profit not attributable to mother 38.64 million yuan/-70.54% YoY.
Q3 Consumer willingness to buy continues to weaken, and the performance of all retail formats is under pressure. ① By business format:
Ole and shopping centers are resilient. In the first three quarters of 2024, department store/shopping center/Olei/specialty store/duty-free revenue was -15.45%/-1.58%/+4.37%/-4.97%/+68.62%, respectively. The gross margin was -1.27pct/-4.73pct/-3.49pct/-2.58pct/+0.93pct, respectively. ② By business category: Sales of digital products increased by nearly 28%, and consumption continues to be high. Consumption of sports products has gradually taken advantage of the market and has now become the company's largest sales category. Entertainment and leisure increased by more than 20%, and sales in the children's experience category increased by nearly 15%.
③ Split volume and price: In the first three quarters, the overall passenger flow of all business categories achieved a slight year-on-year increase. Since Q2, customer unit prices have been under year-on-year pressure due to the decline in consumers' willingness to buy and the decline in purchasing power.
It won the bid for the duty-free projects at Harbin and Mudanjiang airports, which is expected to benefit from the city's new duty-free policy.
On August 13, 2024, Wangfujing Group received the “Notice of Winning Bid” from the bidding agency Zhongzhao International Bidding Co., Ltd., and determined that Wangfujing was the winner of the exit duty-free projects at Harbin Taiping International Airport and Mudanjiang Hailang International Airport. On August 27, the Ministry of Finance and five other departments jointly issued a notice to improve the city's duty-free shop policy, which will be implemented from October 1, 2024. With approval from the State Council, enterprises that are qualified to operate duty-free goods throughout the country can compete on an equal footing for the right to operate duty-free shops in the city. Wangfujing is expected to participate in the bidding.
Risk warning: Consumer demand is weak, and bids for duty-free projects fall short of expectations.
