Yankuang Energy (600188): Performance improved month-on-month, broad room for development and growth in multiple fields

事件概述

公司发布2024年三季度报告， 2024年前三季度，公司共实现营业收入1066.33亿元，同比下降21.50%，实现归母净利润114.05亿元，同比下降26.98%，扣非归母净利润110.51亿元，同比下降22.45%；其中24Q3单季度实现营业收入343.21亿元，同比-15.46%，环比+5.03%，归母净利润38.37亿元，同比-15.63%，环比+0.66%。报告期内公司利润同比有所下降，主要系煤炭等主要产品价格下降所致。

煤炭业务：煤炭产销量稳步增长

产销量方面：2024年1-3季度，公司煤炭产量为10581万吨，同比增长8.8%，销量10259万吨，同比增长3.5%，其中自产煤销量9622万吨，同比增长9.0%。境外控股子公司兖煤澳洲煤炭产量为2718万吨，同比增长14.7%，销量2725万吨，同比增长18.5%。

销售价格方面：2024年1-3季度煤炭销售均价为683元/吨，同比下降18.7%，自产煤销售均价为663元/吨，同比下降16.5%。兖煤澳洲煤炭销售均价838元/吨，同比下降23.1%。

成本方面：2024年1-3季度公司煤炭业务销售成本为388.98亿元，同比减少52.08亿元；吨煤综合销售成本为379元/吨，同比增长11.6%，贸易煤吨煤销售成本为934元/吨，同比下降23.6%。

煤化工业务：产销量同比有所下降，盈利继续改善2024年1-3季度，公司煤化工业务经营稳定，各类产品产量635.5万吨，同比下降2.2%，各类产品销量569.7万吨，同比下降3.4%；前三季度单吨销售成本为2606元/吨，同比下降3.2%，其中Q3单季度销售成本为2408元/吨，同比下降1.8%。煤化工业务2024年前三季度及Q3毛利率分别为20.7%、24.2%，板块盈利水平整体呈现改善态势。

多领域扩张发展，未来增长可期

公司2021年发布《发展战略纲要》，确立“聚焦矿业、高端化工新材料、新能源、高端装备制造、智慧物流五大产业”的发展规划，多领域协同发展。2024年10月公司发布公告投资95.74亿元建设80万吨烯烃项目，加码煤化工业务；加大对外投资力度，2024年收并购沙尔夫公司、物泊科技、高地资源三家公司，在高端装备制造、智慧物流以及矿业开采领域扩张发展。公司立足煤炭开采主业，多领域全面发展，未来增长可期。

投资建议

我们预测公司2024-2026 年归属于母公司的净利润分别为148.24、186.89、210.04 亿元，EPS 为1.48、1.86、2.09 元/股，对应PE 为10.56、8.38、7.45 倍。公司制定未来发展规划，多领域协同发展，公司未来成长空间广阔，稳定高分红提升投资价值。维持“买入”评级。

风险提示

煤价大幅下跌；下游需求不及预期；煤矿安全生产事故风险；煤化工产品价格大幅波动

Incident Overview

The company released a report for the third quarter of 2024. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total operating income of 106.633 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.50%, and realized a net profit of 11.405 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.98%, net profit not attributable to mother, a year-on-year decrease of 22.45%; of these, 24Q3 achieved operating income of 34.321 billion yuan, year-on-year, and +5.03% month-on-month net profit 3.837 billion yuan, -15.63% YoY, +0.66% month-on-month. The company's profit declined year-on-year during the reporting period, mainly due to falling prices of major products such as coal.

Coal business: coal production and sales are growing steadily

In terms of production and sales volume: In the 1st to 3rd quarter of 2024, the company's coal production was 105.81 million tons, up 8.8% year on year, and sales volume was 102.59 million tons, up 3.5% year on year. Among them, sales of self-produced coal were 96.22 million tons, up 9.0% year on year. The overseas holding subsidiary Yancoal Australia's coal production was 27.18 million tons, up 14.7% year on year, and sales volume was 27.25 million tons, up 18.5% year on year.

In terms of sales price: The average sales price of coal in the 1st to 3rd quarter of 2024 was 683 yuan/ton, down 18.7% year on year, and the average sales price of self-produced coal was 663 yuan/ton, down 16.5% year on year. Yancoal's average sales price of Australian coal was 838 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 23.1%.

Cost aspect: In the 1st to 3rd quarter of 2024, the sales cost of the company's coal business was 38.898 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.208 billion yuan; the comprehensive sales cost for tons of coal was 379 yuan/ton, up 11.6% year on year, and the sales cost for tons of traded coal was 934 yuan/ton, down 23.6% year on year.

Coal chemical business: Production and sales declined year-on-year, and profits continued to improve in the 1st to 3rd quarter of 2024. The company's coal chemical business operation was stable. The output of various products was 6.355 million tons, down 2.2% year on year, and sales volume of various products was 5.697 million tons, down 3.4% year on year; sales cost per ton in the first three quarters was 2,606 yuan/ton, down 3.2% year on year. Among them, the sales cost for the Q3 single quarter was 2,408 yuan/ton, down 1.8% year on year. The gross margins of the coal chemical business for the first three quarters of 2024 and Q3 were 20.7% and 24.2% respectively, and the overall profit level of the sector showed an improvement trend.

Expansion and development in multiple fields, future growth can be expected

The company released the “Development Strategy Outline” in 2021, establishing a development plan “focusing on the five major industries of mining, high-end chemical materials, new energy, high-end equipment manufacturing, and smart logistics”, and collaborative development in multiple fields. In October 2024, the company announced that it will invest 9.574 billion yuan to build a 0.8 million ton olefin project to increase its coal chemical business; increase foreign investment and acquire three companies, Schalf, Wubo Technology, and Highland Resources in 2024, to expand and develop in the fields of high-end equipment manufacturing, smart logistics, and mining. The company is based on the main coal mining business, has developed comprehensively in many fields, and future growth can be expected.

Investment advice

We estimate that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024-2026 will be 14.824, 18.689, 21.004 billion yuan, and EPS will be 1.48, 1.86, and 2.09 yuan/share, and the corresponding PE will be 10.56, 8.38, and 7.45 times. The company formulates future development plans and develops collaboratively in multiple fields. The company has broad room for future growth, stable and high dividends to enhance investment value. Maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk warning

Coal prices fell sharply; downstream demand fell short of expectations; risk of safety accidents in coal mines; prices of coal chemical products fluctuated sharply

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兖矿能源(600188)：业绩环比改善 多领域发展成长空间广阔

Yankuang Energy (600188): Performance improved month-on-month, broad room for development and growth in multiple fields

Risk Disclaimer

Statement

兖矿能源(600188)：业绩环比改善多领域发展成长空间广阔