欧洲市场收入保持较快增长，国内和北美地区尚有压力： 2024 年前三季度，公司内、外销收入分别为10.5/49.1 亿元，同比+9.5%/+6.8%。国内部分，梦百合自主品牌实现营收8.2 亿元，同比+9.5%。进一步对梦百合自主品牌进行细分，直营/经销/ 线上/ 酒店渠道分别实现营收1.4/2.5/2.5/1.6 亿元， 分别同比+58.9%/-1.2%/+9.1%/+3.1%。海外部分，分区域看，北美/欧洲分别实现营收31.4/14.4 亿元，同比-2.5%/+25.3%；分业务看，海外直营/线上/代工分别实现营收14.8/9.4/24.9 亿元，同比-4.5%/+51.3%/+2.7%。Incidents:
The company released its three-quarter report for 2024. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.13 billion yuan, +7.2% year-on-year, and net profit of -0.15 billion yuan. 3Q2024 achieved revenue of 2.18 billion yuan, +3.0% year-on-year, and net profit of -0.21 billion yuan to mother.
Comment:
European market revenue continues to grow rapidly, and domestic and North American regions are still under pressure: in the first three quarters of 2024, the company's internal and export sales revenue was 1.05/4.91 billion yuan, respectively, +9.5%/+6.8% compared with the same period last year. In the domestic market, Dream Lily's own brand achieved revenue of 0.82 billion yuan, +9.5% over the same period last year. Dream Lily's own brands were further segmented, and the direct/distribution/online/hotel channels achieved revenue of 1.4/0.25/0.25/0.16 billion yuan respectively, +58.9%/-1.2%/+9.1%/+3.1%, respectively. By overseas segment, by region, North America/Europe achieved revenue of 3.14/1.44 billion yuan, or -2.5%/+25.3% YoY; by business, overseas direct/online/OEM achieved revenue of 1.48/0.94/2.49 billion yuan respectively, or -4.5%/+51.3%/+2.7% YoY.
3Q2024's domestic and foreign sales revenue was 0.38/1.75 billion yuan, respectively, -4.0%/+4.9% year-on-year. In the domestic market, Dream Lily's own brand achieved revenue of 0.29 billion yuan, or -4.3%. Among them, direct-business/distribution/online/hotel channels achieved revenue of 0.5/0.09/0.09/0.05 billion yuan respectively, +21.6%/+0.4%/-13.6%/-7.7%.
By the end of 3Q2024, compared with the beginning of the year, the number of stores directly managed by Dreamlily had a net decrease of 9 stores and a net decrease of 65 stores, respectively, to 158/863, respectively. In order to promote store upgrades and category integration, the company consolidated and upgraded some stores with different series of stores in similar locations to integrate large stores and continuously optimize the store layout, so the number of stores has decreased, but store efficiency has improved significantly. In the first three quarters of 2024, the revenue of the company's own brand Dream Lily direct-managed/dealership stores was 0.888/0.295 million yuan, respectively, +76.0%/+59.9% compared with the same period last year. Affected by weak real estate sales in the third quarter, the overall operation of the domestic home furnishing industry was under pressure, and the company's direct channel revenue maintained rapid growth under the strategy of optimization and upgrading.
In addition, in the first three quarters of 2024, the company opened 18 new Dechi stores in Dongguan, including 3 direct-run stores and 15 distribution stores, which mainly sell furniture such as sofas, beds, tables, chairs, cabinets, etc., and provide high-end customized services. It has independent brands such as Decci, Felice & Guerini, etc., marking the company's official launch of the “software+customization” integrated development model.
In the 3Q overseas segment, by region, North America/Europe achieved revenue of 1.11/0.54 billion yuan, or -4.1%/+23.1%, respectively. Among them, overseas direct/online/OEM channels achieved revenue of 0.52/0.36/0.88 billion yuan, respectively, or -5.3%/+6.4%. Overseas, European revenue continued to grow rapidly in the third quarter. Although overall revenue in North America declined year-on-year, benefiting from the implementation of the third round of anti-dumping, bulk business revenue continued to grow year on year.
The profitability of independent brands continued to increase, and the gross margin of export sales declined year on year in the third quarter: the company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 37.2%, +0.7 pcts year on year. The gross margin of domestic and foreign sales was 42.5%/36.5%, respectively, -0.9/+1.4pcts year-on-year. In the domestic market, the gross margin of Dream Lily's own brand was 45.9%, +0.4 pcts compared to the previous year. Dream Lily's own brands were further segmented. The gross margins of direct-management/ distribution/ online/hotel were 60.5%/37.1%/61.3%/24.0%, respectively, -4.2/+0.8/-1.3/-1.4pcts, respectively. Benefiting from the increase in the share of high-margin direct management and online business revenue under the channel structure upgrade, the gross margin of the company's own brand increased slightly.
By overseas segment, by region, the gross margin of North America/Europe in the first three quarters of 2024 was 38.0%/38.5%, respectively, +1.2/+5.0pcts; by business segment, overseas direct/online/OEM achieved gross profit margins of 51.9%/41.0%/25.6%, respectively, +3.2/+1.1/+0.5pcts year-on-year. We believe that the main reason for the significant increase in overseas gross margin is due to increased capacity utilization and the release of scale effects in European and North American factories.
3Q2024's gross margin was 35.6%, -1.7 pcts year over year. The gross margin of domestic and foreign sales was 41.9%/34.8%, respectively, -4.0/-1.6pcts year-on-year. In domestic terms, the gross margin of Dream Lily's own brand was 48.7%, +2.6 pcts year on year. Among them, the gross margin of direct-management/ distribution/ online/hotel was 62.8%/43.0%/60.9%/24.3%, respectively, and -0.2/-2.7 pcts year-on-year. In terms of overseas divisions and subregions, gross margins in North America/Europe were 34.7%/40.0%, respectively, -2.2/+3.4pcts; by business, overseas direct/online/OEM achieved gross profit margins of 52.6%/42.8%/21.1%, respectively, +4.1/+5.9/-7.1 pcts. We believe that the main reason for the decline in overseas gross margin in 3Q was due to an increase in the share of bulk business revenue and a decline in gross margin.
In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's expenses rate for the period was 35.0%, +2.3 pcts year-on-year. By project, the sales/management/ R&D/ finance rates were 22.8%/6.3%/1.6%/4.3%, respectively, compared with +1.8pcts/-0.8pcts/ +0.2pcts/+1.2pcts. We believe that the increase in the company's sales expenses ratio was mainly due to increased sales channel expenses, and the increase in financial expenses was mainly due to the appreciation of RMB and the increase in exchange losses. Furthermore, in the first three quarters of 2024, the company raised a total of 0.3 billion yuan in credit impairment losses, which had a negative impact on the profit side.
The cost rate during 3Q2024 was 36.7%, +3.0pcts year-on-year. By project, the sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were 21.9%/5.8%/1.9%/7.1%, respectively, +0.7/-0.6/+0.2/+2.8pcts.
I am optimistic about the recovery in the North American and domestic home furnishing industry, and look forward to the flexible release of subsequent performance: Looking ahead to the North American market, the Federal Reserve announced interest rate cuts in September, and domestic home demand is expected to pick up. In addition, the company is also actively developing overseas customers. The company's Mor revenue side directly managed in the US is expected to be repaired, and the bulk business is expected to continue to grow; in the domestic market, the recent boom in the domestic home furnishing market is expected to pick up. We are optimistic that the company's performance in the North American and domestic home furnishing industry resonates with the upward trend. Release of elasticity.
Wait until the gap is exhausted and maintain the “purchase” rating: Considering that the overall demand in the US home industry is currently weak and domestic real estate sales performance is weaker than expected, we lowered the company's 2024-2026 revenue forecast to 8.41/9.75/11.16 billion yuan (a reduction of 5%/6%/6%). Since the company calculated a certain amount of credit impairment in the first three quarters, we lowered our 2024 net profit forecast to -0.06 billion yuan, considering that the increase in US factory capacity utilization will drive profitability next year Upwards and in line with revenue scale expectations, we have basically maintained the 2025 net profit forecast, lowered the 2026 net profit forecast to 0.52 billion yuan (9% reduction), the corresponding EPS for 2024-2026 was -0.10/0.71/0.90 yuan, respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to 2025-2026 PE is 9/7 times, respectively. We believe that after fully accounting for credit impairment losses, the quality of assets has improved. We are optimistic about the recovery in the North American and domestic home furnishing industry, and look forward to the flexible release of subsequent performance and maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The operating rate of US factories falls short of expectations, the risk of raw material price fluctuations exceeding expectations, and the risk of exchange rate fluctuations.
