根据机床工业协会数据，2024 年1-8 月重点联系企业营业收入同比-3.5%，利润总额同比-9.9%，各分行业仍均保持总体盈利。金属加工机床新增订单同比+3.5%，在手订单同比-0.3%。根据国统局数据，1-8 月全国规模以上企业金切机床产量44.7 万台，同比+7.7%；根据海关数据，1-8 月机床工业进出口总额207.5 亿美元，同比-2.3%，其中进口额67.3 亿美元，同比-10.2%，出口额140.3 亿美元，同比+2%。Incident Overview
Haitian Precision released its 2024 three-quarter report on October 30, 2024. The company achieved revenue of 2.493 billion yuan in 2024Q1-3, -0.57% year-on-year, and the performance was in line with expectations.
In October 2024, China's manufacturing PMI returned to the 50.1% macroeconomic level. China's manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range for three consecutive months in June-August, rebounded to 49.8% in September, and continued to rise to 50.1% in October.
According to data from the Machine Tool Industry Association, from January to August 2024, the revenue of key linked enterprises was -3.5% year-on-year, and total profit was -9.9% year-on-year, and all segments maintained overall profits. New orders for metalworking machines were +3.5% YoY, and on-hand orders -0.3% YoY. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in January-August, enterprises above the national scale produced 0.447 million units of gold cutting machine tools; according to customs data, the total import and export volume of the machine tool industry in January-August was 20.75 billion US dollars, -2.3% year on year, of which the import value was 6.73 billion US dollars, or -10.2% year over year, and export value was 14.03 billion US dollars, or +2% year on year.
Q3 revenue of 0.814 billion yuan was +0.26% year over year. The profit side fluctuated slightly due to industry sentiment. The company achieved revenue of 2.493 billion yuan, -0.57% year over year, and achieved net profit of 0.404 billion yuan to mother, or -12.89% year over year. Looking at a single quarter, the company achieved revenue of 0.814 billion yuan in 24Q3, +0.26% year-on-year, and achieved net profit of 0.11 billion yuan to mother in 24Q3, or -22.47% year-on-year.
On the profit margin side, the company's gross margin reached 28.03% in 2024Q1-3, down 1.53pct year-on-year, and the gross margin in the Q3 quarter reached 27.33%; on the net margin side, the 2024Q1-3 company's net margin reached 16.2%, and the 24Q3 quarter reached 13.5%. Fluctuations in the company's profit margin level are mainly affected by fluctuations in industry sentiment. Competition in the industry intensified, leading to a decline in the average profit margin of the industry. Under multiple pressures, the company adopted a positive response strategy to enhance product competitiveness and enhance the company's overall resilience to risks.
R&D investment continues to expand, production capacity construction progresses steadily, and overseas forward-looking layout enhances competitiveness. 2024Q1-3's R&D investment reached 0.125 billion yuan +27.12% over the same period, and the R&D cost rate increased significantly. The R&D cost rate of 24Q1-3 companies reached 5.03%, an increase of 1.1 pct over the previous year. The company attached importance to product research and development and continued to increase R&D investment. In the first half of 2024, the company will develop high-performance products for key industries, achieve import substitution, and accelerate the development and batch application of core functional components.
In terms of production capacity, the company is steadily increasing the production capacity scale of its manufacturing base in South China, promoting the construction of an intelligent production base project for high-end CNC machine tools in Ningbo, and preparing to build overseas regional production capacity.
In terms of market development, the company strengthens domestic and foreign market development and management capabilities. The company strengthens domestic and foreign market development and management capabilities, focuses on exploring the needs of key customers, expanding business teams, strengthening market development in weak regions, and standardizing market management. Overseas markets continue to increase the construction of independent functions, accelerate the global marketing layout, and complete the establishment of a German subsidiary.
e_ummary profit forecast, valuation and investment rating
According to the company's quarterly report for the year 24, considering the impact of industry sentiment, and considering the company's market share and production capacity release progress, we adjusted the profit forecast to 2024-2026 to 3.402/3.758/4.159 billion yuan, respectively (the value of 3.518/3.983/4.535 billion yuan before 2024-2026), and net profit to mother was 0.61/0.681/0.814 billion yuan, respectively (the value before 2024-2026 was 0.633/ 0.723/0.883 billion yuan), the diluted EPS calculated using the current total share capital of 0.522 billion shares is 1.17/1.3/1.56 yuan (2024-2026 previous value 1.21/1.38/1.69 yuan). The company's current stock price is 19/17/14 times the PE multiples of the predicted EPS for 2024-2026, respectively. Considering the continued expansion of the company's overseas layout, overseas revenue is expected to continue to grow. Against the backdrop of a steady recovery in domestic demand driven by policies, the company has a remarkable competitive advantage and maintains a “buy” rating.
