一眾H股內銀中，花旗首選招商銀行(03968.HK)，除了因為其股息回報率達5.4%，與六大國有行相當以外，亦由於招行沒有增資風險，或會受惠於零售市道情緒潛在好轉，給予「買入」評級，目標價38.58元。而A股內銀當中，花旗則看好江蘇銀行(600919.SH)。Citigroup released a research report pointing out that the performance of the 22 mainland banks covered in the third quarter of this year has improved quarter by quarter, with pre-provision profit increasing by an average of 0.5% year-on-year, compared to a 3.7% decrease in the previous quarter; benefited from the decrease in credit costs, the third-quarter profit growth also exceeded expectations, reaching 3.6% year-on-year, compared to 1.5% in the second quarter.
Most of the mainland banks rated by Citigroup performed as expected in the third quarter, with only Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SH), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398.HK), China Construction Bank Corporation (00939.HK), and Bank of Ningbo (002142.SZ) performing better than expected, while Industrial Bank (601166.SH) and Postal Savings Bank of China (01658.HK) fell below expectations.
Citigroup currently predicts that the series of measures announced by the People's Bank of China from September will have a neutral impact on the net interest margin of mainland banks. However, in the short term, the pressure on the net interest margin of banks may intensify mainly due to the faster repricing of existing mortgage loans compared to deposits, and the shift of demand deposits to time deposits, which will result in an equal proportional decrease in deposit rates, failing to effectively offset the pressure on the net interest margin brought about by the same LPR reduction. It is predicted that next year, the net interest margin of mainland banks will fall below 1.4%, and large banks are expected to face greater capital pressure.
Among the various H-share mainland banks, Citigroup prefers CM Bank (03968.HK), not only because its dividend yield reaches 5.4%, comparable to the six major state-owned banks, but also because CM Bank does not have the risk of additional capital raising and may benefit from the potential improvement in retail market sentiment, giving it a 'buy' rating with a target price of 38.58 yuan. In the A-share mainland banks, Citigroup is bullish on Bank of Jiangsu (600919.SH).
