Jingwucx | Ping An Securities issued a research report stating that Li Auto Inc (02015) released its 2024 third quarter performance report. In the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 42.87 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.6% / 35.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.81 billion yuan, an increase of 155.2% compared to the previous quarter. The net cash flow from operating activities of the company in the third quarter was 11 billion yuan. As of the end of the third quarter of 2024, the company's cash reserves reached 106.5 billion yuan.

The bank stated that the increase in the proportion of L6 sales volume in the third quarter led to a decline in per vehicle revenue, but the gross margin increased compared to the previous quarter. According to the delivery data published by the company, the company's delivery volume in the third quarter of 2024 was 0.153 million units, with quarter-on-quarter increases of 45.4% / 40.8%. In the third quarter, the revenue from vehicle sales reached 41.32 billion yuan, corresponding to per vehicle revenue of 0.27 million yuan, a decrease of 0.009 million yuan compared to the second quarter, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of L6 sales volume. In terms of gross margin, the company achieved a 20.9% gross margin on automobile sales in the third quarter, an increase of 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, demonstrating a continued growth in gross margin even with the increase in L6 sales volume. The company provided delivery guidance for the fourth quarter of 24 as 0.16 million~0.17 million units, and revenue guidance of 43.2~45.9 billion yuan. The guidance for the fourth quarter is slightly conservative, with the bank estimating that the main reason is the company's intention not to increase discounts at the end of the year to reduce oversupply in the first quarter of 25.

Combining the company's performance in the first three quarters and the guidance for the fourth quarter, the bank adjusted the company's 2024~2026 net income forecast to 7.71 billion / 14 billion / 19.92 billion yuan (previously forecasted values were 8.28 billion / 14.07 billion / 20.64 billion yuan). The market is concerned about the slightly conservative delivery guidance for the fourth quarter, but the bank believes this is a strategy the company is actively taking to avoid oversupply in the coming year. Furthermore, the company's basic L series still has room for improvement in product strength, and the bank remains optimistic about the company's growth in 25, maintaining a "buy" rating on the company.