盈利端，Q3 公司毛利率同比下滑2.2pct 至20.9%，我们推测主要受外销收入占比提升带来的结构性影响。费用端，Q2 公司期间费用率同比提升2.9%，其中销售、管理及研发费用率基本保持平稳，财务费用同比增加约1.1 亿元，费用率同比提升3.3pct，我们推测主要受汇兑收益同比减少影响，公司延续汇兑中性策略，同期公允价值变动收益同比增加1.1 亿元，汇兑影响基本相互抵消。现金流方面，Q2公司实现经营性现金流净额2.7 亿元，同比降低54%，主要受购买商品、接受劳务支付的现金同比大幅提升24%影响，但净现比仍维持1 倍水平，盈利质量夯实。On the evening of October 28, 2024, Xinbao Co., Ltd. released its 2024 three-quarter report.
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. The company achieved operating income of 12.7 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 18.0% year on year, achieving net profit of 0.78 billion yuan year on year, up 6.7% year on year, achieving net profit without return to mother of 0.8 billion yuan, down 0.6% year on year. Of these, single Q3 achieved operating income of 5 billion yuan, up 12.9% year on year, achieved net profit due to mother of 0.34 billion yuan, up 0.5% year on year, and realized net profit after deduction of 0.31 billion yuan year on year. 13.7%
Let's look at it by business. 1) On the export side, the company's export sales business achieved revenue of 10.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 24.2% year on year. We estimate that Q3 achieved revenue of 4.2 billion yuan, up 20.3% year on year. Although the growth rate has slowed from month to month, the 23 Q3 base has increased significantly from month to month. The export revenue performance exceeded market expectations, and is expected to maintain a high boom in Q4 with the support of European and American customers; 2) On the domestic sales side, the company's domestic sales business achieved revenue of 2.58 billion yuan in the first three quarters, down 1.3% year on year. The Q3 estimate achieved revenue of 0.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.3%. The domestic small kitchen appliance industry continued to be under pressure in the third quarter. According to Aowei Cloud Network omni-channel data, the overall retail sales of the domestic small kitchen appliance industry fell 4.6% year on year in Q3. Domestic consumption sentiment improved marginally at the end of September, and many local trade-in subsidies continued to include multiple small household appliance subsidies in the scope of subsidies. It is expected that the industry demand will improve in the fourth quarter.
On the profit side, Q3 company's gross margin fell 2.2 pct to 20.9% year on year. We estimate that it was mainly affected by the structural impact of the increase in the share of export sales revenue. On the cost side, the company's expense ratio increased 2.9% year on year during the Q2 period. Among them, sales, management and R&D expenses remained stable. Financial expenses increased by about 0.11 billion yuan year on year, and the cost ratio increased 3.3 pct year on year. We estimate that it was mainly affected by the year-on-year decline in exchange earnings. The company continued its exchange-neutral strategy. The revenue from fair value changes increased 0.11 billion yuan year on year during the same period, and the exchange effects basically offset each other. In terms of cash flow, Q2 achieved net operating cash flow of 0.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 54%. This was mainly affected by a sharp increase of 24% in cash from purchasing goods and receiving labor payments. However, the net present ratio remained at 1 times the level, and the profit quality was consolidated.
Profit forecasting and investment ratings. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 17 billion yuan, 18.4 billion yuan and 19.5 billion yuan, respectively, up 16%, 8%, and 6% year-on-year respectively. The net profit to mother is expected to be 1.05 billion yuan, 1.2 billion yuan and 1.3 billion yuan, respectively, up 8%, 14%, and 8% year-on-year respectively. The corresponding PE is 11.7 times, 10.3 times and 9.5 times, respectively, maintaining the “Highly Recommended” investment rating.
Risk warning: Market demand falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies.
