Morgan Stanley's research report states that LI.US's net profit in the third quarter of this year increased by 155% quarter-on-quarter, staying flat at 2.8 billion Chinese yuan on a yearly basis, in line with the bank's expectation of 2.7 billion to 2.9 billion Chinese yuan, implying a profit of 0.0185 million Chinese yuan per vehicle, compared to 9,000 Chinese yuan in the first half of the year.
Furthermore, third-quarter revenue increased by 35% quarter-on-quarter; sales volume increased by 41% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a 4% decrease in average selling price, with a gross margin of 20.9%, slightly better than the bank's expected 20%, enough to offset the increased cost of stock-based incentives. The performance may be due to decreased input costs and expanded economies of scale, enough to offset the growth in sales mix of the "L6" model. Excluding stock-based incentives, non-GAAP profit increased by 156% quarter-on-quarter to 3.85 billion Chinese yuan.
Morgan Stanley mentioned that Li Auto's fourth-quarter sales volume guidance is 0.16 million to 0.17 million units, up 5% to 11% on a quarterly basis, higher than the bank's forecast of 0.155 million to 0.16 million units, implying a total annual sales volume of 0.502 million to 0.512 million units. In addition, Li Auto expects total revenue in the fourth quarter to grow by 1% to 7% quarter-on-quarter, indicating another 4% drop in average selling price.
Morgan Stanley has set Li Auto's target price at $29 on the US stock market, giving it a "shareholding" rating.
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