硅片出货环比显著增长，毛利率环比改善。2024 年1-9 月公司分别实现硅片及组件出货82.80GW （外售35.03GW）、51.23GW，分别同比-4%/+18%，其中Q3 硅片/组件出货38.36（外售13.07GW）、19.89GW，分别环比+117%/+8%，硅片出货环比显著增长。Q3 公司销售毛利率环比提升2.0 PCT 至8.6%。Brief performance review
On October 30, the company released its 2024 three-quarter report. The first three quarters achieved operating income of 58.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38%, and net profit to mother of -6.488 billion yuan, which turned into a year-on-year loss. Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 20.1 billion yuan, -32% year-on-year and -4% month-on-month, and net profit attributable to mother/net profit of -1.261/-1.212 billion yuan, respectively, with significant month-on-month losses (Q2 was -28.93/-28.57, respectively), mainly due to a sharp decrease in asset impairment.
Management analysis
Silicon wafer shipments increased significantly month-on-month, and gross margin improved month-on-month. From January to September 2024, the company achieved shipments of 82.80 GW (35.03 GW) and 51.23 GW of silicon wafers and modules, respectively, -4%/+18% compared to the same period. Among them, Q3 silicon wafers/modules shipped 38.36 (13.07 GW) and 19.89GW, respectively, +117%/+8% month-on-month, respectively, and silicon wafer shipments increased significantly. Q3 The company's gross sales margin increased 2.0 PCT to 8.6% month-on-month.
BC is leading the technology industry, and its efficiency advantages are expected to drive a rapid increase in penetration rate. The company firmly established the leading position of BC technology and achieved major breakthroughs in high-efficiency HPBC 2.0 technology during the reporting period. The battery mass production efficiency was 26.6%, and the component mass production efficiency reached up to 24.8%. It is the product with the highest efficiency in mass production on a large scale in the entire industry, and is far ahead of the industry in terms of overall technical performance such as power generation performance and reliability. In the first three quarters, the company shipped 13.77 GW of BC components. Currently, BC components have been included in domestic high-capacity procurement tenders. As the efficient and reliable value of the company's HPBC 2.0 products is highlighted and the scenario product matrix is improved, the market penetration rate of BC products is expected to increase rapidly, supporting the increase in the company's market share and profitability.
The management fee rate continues to decline, and financial soundness is guaranteed through the cycle. Affected by the decline in industrial chain prices, Q3 companies experienced asset impairment losses of 0.774 billion yuan (estimated to be mainly inventory impairment charges), which is significantly narrower than Q2, mainly due to slower price fluctuations in the industrial chain. Against the backdrop of pressure on industry profits, the company's management expenses fell to 0.683 billion yuan for four consecutive quarters, and the cost control effect was remarkable. By the end of the third quarter, the company had cash capital of 51.1 billion yuan and a balance ratio of 59%. Debt pressure was at a low level in the industry, ensuring that the company moved through the cycle.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
According to our latest judgment on the industry, the company's 2024-2026 net profit was adjusted to -7.61, 7.05, and 8.44 billion yuan, corresponding to 2025-2026 PE by 21 and 17 times, respectively. Considering the company's financial stability and the leading BC technology industry, the “buy” rating was maintained.
Risk warning
Product price performance fell short of expectations; raw material prices rose beyond expectations; the international trade environment deteriorated; and there was a risk that the competitive landscape would deteriorate.