目前总蓄能同比下滑，4Q24 发电量同比增长或有一定压力2023 年，公司所属长江干流六座梯级水库10 月20 日完成年度蓄水任务，总可用水量达410 亿立方米（指水库死水位之上的水量），蓄能338 亿千瓦时。2024 年，白鹤滩水电站10 月16 日完成年度蓄水任务，总蓄水量达到31.39 亿立方米。但根据四川水文网数据，截至2024 年10 月30 日，公司溪洛渡/向家坝蓄水量为103.24/45.82 亿立方米，同比-7.23%/-3.21%。我们认为主要原因是9 月开始来水同比偏枯严重。考虑目前公司蓄能同比下滑，我们认为4Q24 发电量同比增长或承压。Changjiang Electric Power released its three-quarter report: 3Q24 achieved revenue of 31.522 billion yuan (yoy +17.27%, qoq +64.46%) and net profit of 16.663 billion yuan (yoy +31.81%, qoq +125.31%).
1-9M24 achieved revenue of 66.331 billion yuan (yoy +14.65%), net profit of 28.025 billion yuan (yoy +30.20%), deducting non-net profit of 27.984 billion yuan (yoy +30.42%). The net profit for 3Q24 exceeded our expectations of 13.975-15.323 billion yuan, mainly due to: 1) the company's power generation capacity increased 15.05% year-on-year, higher than our expectations; 2) the company's operating costs increased less than our expectations. I am optimistic that the company's six reservoirs and the upstream Longpan (not in production) /Lianghekou Reservoir will bring increased electricity generation effects to the company's downstream hydropower plants and integrated development of water and landscape storage in the lower reaches of the Jinsha River, and maintain a “buy” rating.
3Q24's power generation capacity was +15.05%, net revenue from fair value changes was +0.406 billion yuan 1-9m24 year on year, and the total incoming water volume of the company's Wudongde/Three Gorges Reservoir was 88.852/313.11 billion cubic meters, which was 12.56%/20.26% higher year over year, so the company's cumulative power generation capacity was +15.97% to 235.814 billion kilowatt-hours. In 3Q24, the company's power generation increased 15.05% year-on-year to 115.196 billion kilowatt-hours; among them, Wudongde/ Baihetan/ Xiluodu/ Xiangjiaba/ Three Gorge/ Gezhouba power generation were 173.57/244.42/233.84/12.28/32.328/5.404 billion kilowatt-hours, respectively, with a year-on-year trend of +15.13%/+23.49%/+18.63%/+12.39%/-7.25%. In 3Q24, the company's net revenue from changes in fair value increased by 0.406 billion yuan to 0.088 billion yuan year-on-year.
At present, total energy storage is declining year on year. 4Q24 power generation capacity is increasing year on year or there may be some pressure. The company's six cascade reservoirs in the Yangtze River main stream completed their annual water storage tasks on October 20. The total usable water volume reached 41 billion cubic meters (referring to the amount of water above the dead water level of the reservoir), and 33.8 billion kilowatt-hours of energy storage. In 2024, the Baihetan Hydropower Station completed its annual water storage task on October 16, with a total water storage capacity of 3.139 billion cubic meters. However, according to data from the Sichuan Hydrological Network, as of October 30, 2024, the company's Xiluodu/Xiangjiaba water storage capacity was 10.324/4.582 billion cubic meters, -7.23%/-3.21% compared with the same period last year. We think the main reason is the severe year-on-year depletion of incoming water since September. Considering the current year-on-year decline in the company's energy storage, we think 4Q24 power generation will increase or be under pressure year over year.
The target price is 32.95 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating
Considering the year-on-year decline in incoming water in September and lowering the company's power generation forecast, we expect the company's net profit to be 33.8/35.1/35.7 billion yuan (previous value: 34.3/36.2/36.9 billion yuan) in 2024-2026, corresponding to EPS of 1.38/1.43/1.46 yuan. Referring to the comparable company Wind's average PE16.4x in 2025, we are optimistic that the company's six banks and the upstream Longpan (not in production) /two hekou reservoirs will bring electricity generation effects to the company's downstream hydropower station and integrated development of water scenery and solar storage in the lower reaches of the Jinsha River, giving the company a target PE 23.0x in 2025, with a target price of 32.95 yuan (previous value: 35.08 yuan), maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Policy uncertainty puts pressure on electricity prices, and restrictions on electricity volume such as incoming water or flood control. The decline in profits of participating companies has brought investment returns that fall short of expectations, and the increase in joint scheduling due to black and white is falling short of expectations.
