手续费业务表现低迷，24Q3 单季手续费及佣金收入30.6 亿元，同比-20%。1）Q3 单季经纪业务收入13.8 亿元，同比-14%，略低于24Q3 市场交易量下滑幅度。2）投行业务承压，24Q3 公司股权/债券承销额同比分别-94%/+0.2%，Q3 单季投行收入6.3 亿元，同比-43%。3）Q3 单季资管业务收入9.4 亿元，同比-9%，三季度季末华安基金/国君资管非货公募规模分别达3569/408 亿元，同比分别+6%/+60%，资管收入下滑或系公募业务产品结构调整、权益基金管理费率下调导致。Brief performance review
On 10/30, Guotai Junan released financial report for the 3rd quarter of '24. The company achieved operating revenue/net profit to mother of 29/9.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 24, respectively, or +7%/+10% year-on-year. The 24Q3 quarter achieved operating revenue/net profit of 11.9/4.5 billion yuan respectively, +37%/+56% year-on-year. On the expenditure side, 24Q3 management expenses were +18.6% year-on-year, and impairment charges surged back 0.16 billion (23Q3 calculated 0.06 billion). The leverage ratio (excluding customer margin) increased by 0.1 pct to 4.9 times month-on-month. The weighted average ROE for the first three quarters was 5.97%, +0.35pct year-on-year.
Management analysis
Fee business performance was sluggish. The 24Q3 single quarter fee and commission revenue was 3.06 billion yuan, -20% over the same period last year. 1) In Q3, brokerage revenue in a single quarter was 1.38 billion yuan, -14% year-on-year, slightly lower than the decline in trading volume in the 24Q3 market. 2) Investment banking business was under pressure. 24Q3 companies' share/bond underwriting amounts were -94%/+0.2% year-on-year, respectively, and Q3 investment bank revenue was 0.63 billion yuan in a single quarter, or -43% year-on-year. 3) Q3 asset management revenue in a single quarter was 0.94 billion yuan, -9% year-on-year. At the end of the third quarter, Huaan Fund/Guojun Asset Management's non-commodity public offering scale reached 356.9/40.8 billion yuan respectively, +6%/+60% year over year. The decline in asset management revenue may be due to public offering product restructuring and equity fund management rate reductions.
The heavy asset business grew significantly. 1) Net interest income increased sharply. Net interest income in Q3 was 0.52 billion yuan in a single quarter, +662% year over year. The high increase in revenue was mainly due to a low base. At the same time, the 6% decrease in payable bonds led to a 10% year-on-year decrease in Q3 interest expenses. 2) Investment assets were basically the same as at the end of the previous quarter. The structure was adjusted, and equity positions were increased at the end of the quarter. Among them, transactional financial assets/other debt investments/other equity instrument investments were +109/-91/+3.5 billion yuan at the end of the previous quarter, benefiting from improving market conditions. The return on investment increased from 1.8% in the same period last year to 2.3%, and the company's investment revenue was +39%/+128% year-on-year respectively.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Investment advice: Guotai Junan is currently accelerating the merger and restructuring with Haitong Securities. The two brokerage firms will achieve complementary advantages in the business structure. After the merger, the strength of Guotai Junan Capital will be significantly enhanced. The larger balance sheet will help increase the business scale of institutions such as customer demand and market making, and help the company accelerate the construction of a world-class investment bank. Based on the company's outstanding performance in the third quarter and the significant improvement in the market environment since late September, the profit forecast is raised. The company is expected to achieve net profit of 13.88, 14.95, and 17.22 billion yuan from 2024-2026. The year-on-year differences were +48.0%, +7.8%, and +15.2%; 2024-2026 BPS was 17.7, 18.7, and 19.9 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PB at the current price was 1.1, 1.0, and 1.0 times, respectively. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1) The macroeconomic downturn and investors' risk aversion heats up; 2) capital market reforms fall short of expectations; 3) equity market recovery falls short of expectations.