盈利预测与评级：我们预计公司2024-2026 年收入分别为60.07 /71.26/83.69亿元，同比增长-23.2%/ 18.6%/ 17.4%；归母净利润分别为9.98/ 13.00/15.76 亿元，同比增长-56.0%/ 30.3%/ 21.2%。考虑到公司常规业务稳步向好，新兴业务有望恢复增长，维持“买入”评级。In the first three quarters of 2024, revenue of 4.14 billion yuan (-35.14%) was achieved, excluding the impact of large orders; the small-molecule business achieved revenue of 3.387 billion yuan, an increase of 7.71% year-on-year after excluding the impact of large orders; and emerging businesses achieved revenue of 0.745 billion yuan (-8.37%). 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 1.443 billion yuan (-18.1%), an increase of 12.23% year over the previous quarter after excluding the impact of large orders; the 24Q3 small molecule business achieved revenue of 1.192 billion yuan, up 18.89% year on year and 22.52% month on month after excluding the impact of large orders; and emerging businesses achieved revenue of 0.245 billion yuan, down 13.26% year on year. Judging from current orders and execution, emerging businesses will resume their growth trend in the fourth quarter.
The gross margin of the small molecule business has rebounded, and emerging business trends are improving. In the first three quarters of 2024, gross margin was 43.60%, down 1.02 pcts year on year after excluding the impact of large orders; the gross profit margin of the small molecule business was 48.89%, up 1.19 pcts year over year after excluding the impact of large orders; the gross profit margin of emerging businesses was 19.97% (-12.99pcts), mainly affected by factors such as the continued downturn in the domestic market and some businesses still climbing in production capacity, which is expected to gradually ease as project delivery continues to increase.
Continuously optimize the operating system and accelerate the global layout. Sandwich Site, Europe's first R&D and pilot test base, was put into operation in the first half of '24, and has begun to accept orders; accelerated peptide business expansion and production capacity construction, obtained mid- and late-stage peptide clinical projects from several multinational pharmaceutical companies, and signed commercial GLP-1 polypeptide orders with important domestic customers. The solid phase peptide synthesis production capacity exceeds 2wL to meet the commercial production needs of domestic and foreign customers; the company continues to strengthen the driving force of leading customers, actively expand domestic and foreign markets, expand service customer groups, and continue to maintain a good trend with new orders.
Profit forecast and rating: We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 60.07/7.126/8.369 billion yuan, up -23.2%/18.6%/17.4% year on year; net profit to mother will be 9.98/ 1.3/1.576 billion yuan, respectively, up -56.0%/30.3%/21.2% year on year. Considering the steady improvement of the company's regular business, emerging businesses are expected to resume growth and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies, capacity construction falls short of expectations, customer expansion falls short of expectations
