3Q24 公司毛利率为8.5%，同比-0.09pct；24 年前三季度公司毛利率为9.9%，同比-0.28pct，毛利率小幅下降，但降幅环比收窄（1Q/2Q 毛利率降幅分别为-0.24/-0.49pct），考虑到公司在资本开支上具有先发性，产能利用率有进一步提升空间，公司仍有降本空间。3Q24 四项费用合计为4.93 亿元，同比-16.33%，核心运营成本与四项费用均保持下降。随着经营性现金流提升（9M24 同比+112%），预计负债规模缩小、市场资金成本的下降有望节降财务费用。24 年前三季度计提信用与固定资产减值损失准备1.7 亿元，主要为超期应收账款，对前三季度归母净利影响为-1.3 亿元。The company announced third-quarter results: operating income of 12.26 billion yuan, YoY +8.84/ 1.33%; net profit to mother of 0.367 billion yuan, +24.3/ -41.5% YoY; net profit of 0.34 billion yuan after deducting non-return to mother of 0.34 billion yuan, +88.5/ -24.0% YoY. In the first three quarters, the company's revenue/net profit attributable to mothers/net profit after deducting non-attributable net profit were 35.51/1.41/1.17 billion yuan, respectively, +8.14/+20.8/ +20.9% year-on-year. Q3 Net profit without deduction increased year-on-year, mainly due to continuous improvement in express delivery business costs and expenses. Net profit to mother fell short of our expectations (0.548 billion, +85% year over year), and mainly due to asset impairment losses. Since the post office called for “anti-domestic sales,” the core “grain-producing area” of express delivery has spontaneously raised prices, boosting the industry boom together with the peak season. Looking ahead to next year, the company's capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to increase, there is still room for fee control, push for gross margin repair, and maintain a “buy” rating.
The average item price decline narrowed significantly. In the 3Q24 express delivery industry, the average price decline in the 3Q24 express delivery industry increased 20.0% year on year, 1Q/2Q was +25.2/ +21.3% year on year respectively, entering the off-season, and the volume growth rate slowed down; the average price of domestic parts decreased 6.5% year on year, 1Q/2Q was -6.2/ -6.8% year on year respectively. Yiwu, Chaoshan and other places spontaneously raised prices, and the average price decline in the industry narrowed. On the company side, the company's volume increased by 23.7% year on year (1Q/2Q: +29.1/ +30.8%), and volume growth slowed; the average item price decreased by 13.6% year on year in the first three quarters, or due to a high base in the same period in '23, a sharp drop in direct customer ratio, the company's increased cash flow support for franchisees and a decrease in product weight, and the average item price decline narrowed quarter by quarter (1Q/2Q/3Q: -15.9/-15.6/ -10.4%). The company changed to balance volume and price, and its market share was relatively stable (13.3/13.9/ 13.8% for 1Q/2Q/3Q, respectively). (Data source: Ministry of Transport, company announcements)
Fee control promotes the release of profits, and asset impairment accrues profits
3Q24's gross margin was 8.5%, -0.09pct; in the first three quarters of 24, the company's gross margin was 9.9%, -0.28pct year on year, with a slight decrease in gross margin, but the decline narrowed month-on-month (1Q/2Q gross margin declines were -0.24/-0.49pct, respectively). Considering that the company is proactive in terms of capital expenditure and there is room for further improvement in capacity utilization, the company still has room to reduce costs. The total cost of 3Q24 was 0.493 billion yuan, -16.33% over the same period. Both core operating costs and the four expenses continued to decline. As operating cash flow increases (9M24 +112% year over year), it is expected that the size of debt will shrink and the decline in market capital costs will reduce financial expenses. Credit and fixed asset impairment losses were calculated in the first three quarters of 24 billion yuan, mainly for overdue accounts receivable, and the impact on net profit due to mother for the first three quarters was -0.13 billion yuan.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We maintain the company's net profit forecast for 24/25/26, of 2.1/2.56/3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.3/21.9/ 17.3%, respectively, and corresponding EPS of 0.72, 0.88, and 1.04 yuan respectively.
Although the market share is not high, considering that there is not much room for the company's utilization rate increase and cost reduction, there is a high level of confidence in the 25-year performance growth. 25E 13.8x PE was given, and the corresponding target price was 12.18 yuan (comparable to the company Wind's unanimous expectations) to maintain “buying.”
Risk warning: Industry growth is lower than expected; price competition worsens; demand growth during peak season is lower than expected.
