下调盈利预测 、维持“增持”评级。公司2024Q3业绩略低于预期，小幅下调2024-2026 年盈利预测，预计2024-2026 年归母净利润为34.01/38.05/42.39 亿元（原35.67/41.76/48.19 亿元），对应EPS 为2.45/2.75/3.06 元，同比+20%/12%/11%。参考白电可比公司2025 年平均估值，维持目标价42 元，对应公司2025 年15X PE。Introduction to this report:
The company's 2024Q3 performance fell short of expectations, but domestic sales difficulties improved month by month, overseas growth was strong, and Q4 is expected to usher in a month-on-month improvement. At the same time, the net cash content of the company's assets is high, and the current market capitalization safety margin is obvious.
Key points of investment:
Lower the profit forecast and maintain the “gain” rating. The company's 2024Q3 performance was slightly lower than expected, and the 2024-2026 profit forecast was slightly lowered. The estimated net profit for 2024-2026 was 3.401/3.805/4.239 billion yuan (originally 3.567/4.176/4.819 billion yuan), corresponding EPS was 2.45/2.75/3.06 yuan, +20%/12%/11% year-on-year. Refer to Baidian's 2025 average valuation and maintain the target price of 42 yuan, corresponding to the company's 2025 15X PE.
2024Q3 results fell slightly short of expectations. The company achieved operating income of 70.579 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, +8.75% year on year, net profit of 2.793 billion yuan, or +15.13% year on year; of these, 2024 Q3 achieved operating income of 21.937 billion yuan, -0.08% year on year, and net profit to mother 0.777 billion yuan, or -16.29% year on year.
The pressure on domestic sales to remove inventory has eased, and overseas growth continues at a high rate. The 2024Q3 company's revenue side is under pressure, mainly due to strong downward pressure on the domestic sales side: there was a large online promotion in June, but after terminal demand cooled down, inventory backlogged. The overall inventory removal phase in Q3 July-August affected the company's shipments, and September ushered in an improvement in overall national supplements. We expect the company's domestic sales to decline by double digits year-on-year in the third quarter, with exports increasing by more than 30%.
Gross margin is under phased pressure, and net cash as a share of market capitalization is still at a high level. 2024Q3's gross margin declined significantly, mainly due to the sharp upward trend in raw material costs in Q2, and exchange rate changes also contributed negatively. Looking at domestic and foreign sales, due to the obvious contraction in the scale of domestic sales and significant price cuts during the inventory removal cycle, the gross margin of the domestic sales business is mainly declining, and the gross profit of the overseas business is relatively stable. On the other hand, the company mainly exports from international marketing platforms, which are characterized by low gross profit and low cost rates, so as the share of overseas revenue increases, there will also be a downward impact on the gross margin of the front end. On the asset side, 2024Q3's monetary cash+transactional financial assets totaled 20.301 billion yuan, +1.148 billion yuan at the end of 2024H1. Non-current assets and other non-current assets due within one year totaled 12.474 billion yuan, -0.207 billion yuan month-on-month. The two categories are mainly large deposit certificates and deposit assets. Short-term+long-term loans totaled 2.846 billion yuan, +0.5 billion yuan month-on-month compared to the end of 2024H1. The net cash content on hand is about 28 billion yuan, accounting for about 77% of the current market value.
Risk warning: Raw material prices fluctuate, cost pressure rises, and post-cycle demand weakens due to declining real estate completion
