AI 业务为增长核心，其余业务亦呈现向上态势。受益于AI 强劲需求，第三季度AI 服务器同比、环比营收皆显著成长，AI 占整体服务器业务占比相较去年大幅提升。数据中心高速交换机、通用服务器亦维持良好增长态势，第三季度环比、同比成长显著。得益于AI 需求提振，SmartNIC/DPU 等板卡成长强劲，同比、环比营收大幅提升。受惠WiFi 6/6E 渗透率提升及WiFi 7 产品出货，WiFi 产品营收同比、环比成长亦有优异表现。Incident: The company released its report for the third quarter of 2024. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 436.373 billion yuan, +32.71% year over year; net profit attributable to parent was 15.141 billion yuan, +12.28% year over year. Net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 14.734 billion yuan, +8.87% YoY.
Driven by AI-related businesses, 3Q2024's revenue in a single quarter reached a record high. Benefiting from strong AI demand, in the first three quarters of 2024, the company's overall cloud computing business revenue increased 71% over the previous year, and AI server revenue increased 228% over the previous year, accounting for 45% of overall server revenue. Looking at 3Q2024 alone, the company achieved revenue of 170.282 billion yuan, +39.53% year over month, a record high. Among them, AI servers accounted for 48% of server revenue, and their share continued to increase from quarter to quarter, showing a trend where one quarter was better than the first quarter.
Foreign exchange dragged down profit performance, and gross margin increased month-on-month. In the 3Q2024 single quarter, the company achieved net profit of 6.402 billion yuan, +1.24% year on year, +40.57% month on month; net profit without return to mother was 6.2 billion yuan, +3.4% year on year, and +45.51% month on month. Large exchange rate fluctuations in the third quarter caused foreign exchange to drag down profit performance; if the impact on exchange was deducted, net profit to mother was +11% year-on-year. Looking at 24Q3 alone, the company achieved gross profit margin of 6.97%, -2.32pcts year on year, +0.97pct month-on-month; net profit margin of 3.76%, -1.43pcts yoy, +0.79pcts month-on-month.
The AI business is the core of growth, and the rest of the business is also showing an upward trend. Benefiting from strong demand for AI, AI server revenue grew significantly in the third quarter compared to last year, with AI accounting for a significant increase in the overall server business compared to last year. Data center high-speed switches and general-purpose servers also maintained a good growth trend, with significant month-on-month and year-over-year growth in the third quarter. Thanks to boosted demand for AI, boards such as SmartNIC/DPU grew strongly, and revenue increased significantly year over year. Benefiting from the increase in the penetration rate of WiFi 6/6E and the shipment of WiFi 7 products, the year-on-year and month-on-month growth of WiFi products also showed excellent performance.
Investment advice: We expect the company's 2024/2025/2026 revenue to be 611.198/960.51/1169.128 billion yuan, and 2024/2025/2026 net profit to mother will be 23.985/31.765/39.1 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding 2024/2025/2026 PE will be 20.09/15.17/12.32 times, respectively, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning: New product progress falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, macro demand falls short of expectations, geopolitical risk, risk of exchange rate fluctuations, risk of lifting the ban on restricted stocks.
