24 年前三季度公司经营性净现金流-0.8 亿元，同比+0.2 亿元。截至Q3 末公司存货12.5 亿元，相比Q2 末+35.3%，主要系产销率下降，我们认为若光伏玻璃价格持续下滑，后续需关注存货减值对公司利润的影响。The company announced results for the third quarter: Q3 revenue of 0.72 billion yuan, -63.3%/-53.4%; net profit to mother of -0.19 billion yuan, loss increased by 0.15 billion yuan compared to Q2; the company achieved revenue of 3.7 billion yuan, -21.9% year on year; net profit to mother -0.25 billion yuan, -0.45 billion yuan year on year. The company's third quarter results were better than our expectations (-0.25 billion yuan), or because The reduction in cold repairs and production led to a reduction in the scale of losses. Considering that the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall, profit pressure is still strong, pay attention to positive signals such as supply-side contraction, and maintain “increase in holdings.”
In Q3, the volume and price of photovoltaic glass fell sharply, and the gross margin in the single quarter changed to negative 24Q3's revenue -63.3% year-on-year. In addition to falling PV glass prices, we also expect sales to decline month-on-month due to cold repairs and production cuts in the company's production line. The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 24 years was 2.0%, -9.5pct year on year, -18.8% in Q3, 31.5/-24.7pct month-on-month. For the first time since 2016, there was a negative gross profit margin in a single quarter. According to Zhuochuang information, as of October 24, the average price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass nationwide was 12.3 yuan/square meter, -0.8% from week to week. Considering that the current relatively oversupply inventory is still high and the price of photovoltaic glass has not stopped falling, we expect Q4's gross margin to continue to be under pressure.
All expense ratios increased year-on-year in the first three quarters. Compared with the end of Q2, inventory increased significantly by 9.4% and +1.7pct year-on-year in the first three quarters of the year. Among them, the sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were 0.4%/2.9%/4.3%/1.8%, respectively, +0.01/+0.6/+0.5pct.
The company's net operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 24 years was -0.08 billion yuan, +0.02 billion yuan year-on-year. As of the end of Q3, the company's inventory was 1.25 billion yuan, compared to +35.3% at the end of Q2, mainly due to a decline in production and sales. We believe that if the price of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, we need to pay attention to the impact of inventory impairment on the company's profits.
Since July, the industry's production capacity has continued to decrease. It is expected that production efficiency will increase after cold repair. According to Zhuochuang Information, the daily melting volume of domestic photovoltaic glass is expected to be 0.102 milliont/d at the end of October, +7.4% year-on-month, and -2.3% month-on-month. Production capacity has continued to decline since July. Since this year, the company has successively cold repaired multiple production lines in Yixing and Hefei. On the one hand, the company has taken the lead in cold repairing high-cost production capacity during the industry's loss period, and on the other hand, it is expected that the conditions to ignite and resume production ahead of time during the industry recovery period. It is expected that the company's production efficiency and cost will improve after the technical reform and cold repair of the production line.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Considering the imbalance between supply and demand and high inventories, we lowered the company's 24-26 EPS to -0.60/0.11/0.45 yuan (previous value -0.32/0.12/0.52 yuan), BPS to 6.57/6.68/7.13 yuan, which is comparable to the average 25-year PB of the company's A/H shares of 1.7/1.1x. Considering that the company took the lead in reducing production and short-term loss scale or narrowing, and the company's production efficiency and costs are expected to improve after technical reform and cold repair, giving A-shares a 25-year xP1.9 b with a target price of 12.69 Yuan (previous value of $9.59); considering the liquidity discount in the Hong Kong stock market and paying more attention to short-term performance, H shares were given 0.8 xPb for 25 years, with a target price of HK$5.81 (previous value of HK$4.49), all maintaining “increased holdings”.
Risk warning: PV installed demand is lower than expected, capacity investment integration is slow, and profit growth falls short of expectations.
